Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, May 26, 2017
We’re heading out to Elmont, New York, for FREE picks & analysis of Friday’s Belmont card from Paul Hundley (@vapaul67)!
Check out Paul’s analysis of New York racing every Friday here on Danonymous Racing! Be sure to give him a follow on twitter.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello everyone and welcome once again to another Friday of racing in Elmont, NY at Belmont Park. Last week was a tough road for us, Four 2nd place finishes, but no on top winners. We did have 33-1 Ultimate Holiday as one of Pick 5 selections in race 3, however, we had already been knocked out the race before by a horse apparently I never paid a lot of attention to when handicapping the race. Am hoping for better this week. Even though I handicapped the turf races expecting them to remain on the turf, will not be doing any multi-race wager this week with real possibility that some or all the turf racing will be taken off. So let’s get to the racing!
RACE 1: Not sure, but if this remains on grass, possibly the first turf event for 2 year olds I’ve seen this year in the U.S. Not sure about his post, but everything else looks good for 7-ARAWAK. Will have one of the best jocks in the country if not the world in John Velazquez riding for Trainer Wesley Ward, who is about as good at winning with FTS 2 year olds as there is (22% first-timers), plus a red hot sire in Uncle Mo hitting 20% with 1st time turf. 6-Fast Boat is a FTS for Christophe Clement (13%), Sire City Zip 13% 1st turf, Clement and Jose Ortiz are 37% together recently. 4-Morrison is by The Factor, who through a limited number of starters, is 29% 1st turf. Irad Ortiz rides for Joe Sharp. Dam has 2 winners including a turf winner.
RACE 2: DESIRE CLARY has been going longer distances and facing tougher groups than today since being in U.S, lone U.S win was debut in country last July. 3-Wekeela, the probable favorite, has been off 10 months, is 0 for 3 in the U.S but all in Grade 1’s and she has placed in 2 of those. Training steadily for today’s return, but why were the last works not on the turf as well as all her others were? Thinking she needs this race and it’s definitely a start to something connections are hoping leads to a Stakes win or 2. 6- Rachel Wall has not fared well last 2 races, though it did have an excuse in last, but has run with a similar level to this last year in New York and is 2nd off the layoff for Graham Motion. Also may be very close to or even on lead in small field.
RACE 3: 7-SPRING FOLLY was 3rd out of 12 in debut behind David Donk duo on opening day of the meet, was 4 lengths ahead of 4th. 2 maintenance works since, outside post hurts but not the toughest group here. 4-Sweet August Lady we may know this one’s chances by glancing at the tote board, but am guessing that because of connections she will be bet down and even though Chad Brown is an impressive 21% FTS and debut turf, Lady has no turf works showing plus Dam has no turf winners so far so will try to beat her today. Must respect however. 7-Barbie On A Budget is 2/2 in the money, but is trying turf for first time, 1 of only 2 Four year olds in field vs younger.
RACE 4: This is a TOUGH race to come up with a horse that I could be confident about, and while not really accomplishing that, I am on a horse that I feel about as good about as any other in here, and she’s 20-1 morning line! PRINCESS SARIAH finished several lengths behind 2 back when facing probable heavy favorite in here Thirtydaysinjune, but that was Sarah’s only 2nd career start and 1st with blinkers. Last out faced tougher and caught a sloppy track, chasing fast early fractions before fading. Now goes back to 20K level and gets veteran jock Chris Decarlo, who is 2 for 5 with Trainer Gaston Grant, who is 21% with very limited starts this year. 2-Thirtydaysinjune as mentioned will be heavy favorite and could go gate to wire but was beaten 5 lengths at this level 2 back at even money. 9-Causeway Cutie is 0 for 21 but 11 ITM finishes and has shown decent early speed last several races.
RACE 5: 1-RAY’SWARRIOR is 1st off claim for Robert Diodoro (25%), ran 2nd of 7 @ Keeneland vs 32K, has good early speed which should help from rail. 6-Too Fast To Pass is a former Southern Cal stalwart but is trying Belmont for 2nd time in a row. Castellano sees fit to ride. 1st off claim for Oscar Barrera. 3-Gentrify seems to be the best of the rest even though the 4-Los Borrachos beat him 2 back. He won last race at 32K level. Rosario jumps on.
RACE 6: 4-GRAND SKY was 2nd of 7 last race, beaten 1/2 length to Excluded, and a head better than Dr. Shane. Draws favorably over those 2 today in posts and has 2 wins in 5 starts at Belmont and more importantly at today’s distance. 3-Captain Gaughen was 2nd/8 beaten a neck last race 2 months ago. Has not had a win in a couple of years so hard to endorse today on that front. 8-Dr. Shane led just about the whole way before caught late, settling for 3rd/7 beaten 1/2 length in his turf debut last race at similar level that included top choice. Puts Blinkers back on so may have even more early zip.
RACE 7: 6-PHAT MAN is lightly raced compared to others in here, 1st time gelding, was 2nd last race beaten a nose at level for straight 3 year olds. Should be stalking from outside. 4-Going Strong is the strongest closer in field. Has 6 2nd place finishes to only 2 wins. Linda Rice 25% 2nd off layoff.
RACE 8: Sorry running out of time, will just give top 3 horses. My apologies.
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