Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, May 19, 2017
We’re heading out to Elmont, New York, for FREE picks & analysis of Friday’s Belmont card from Paul Hundley (@vapaul67)!
Check out Paul’s analysis of New York racing every Friday here on Danonymous Racing! Be sure to give him a follow on twitter.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello everyone and welcome once again to another Friday of racing in Elmont, NY , otherwise known as Belmont Park. Last week we had another decent week with 4 on top winners, although our Pick 5 went up in flames from the get go as our original selections for race 1 scratched out and we had to substitute horses in I was not particularly fond of to begin with. Anyways enough about last week, let’s get to today.
RACE 1: Before you ask (and you KNOW you were thinking it, don’t lie!) YES, we do have another early Pick 5 ticket today. Going deep in this race using four, including top pick 1-INCORPORATE. He’s dropping to maiden claiming ranks for 1st time, is getting blinkers, and has been gelded since last start. Has 3 fairly quick works since last race, am guessing with the shades on. 5- O Captainmycaptain is a FTS for Clement (13%), Sire To Honor And Serve 10%. Dam is 4 for 4 so far with her foals winning. 6-Guick could be dangerous showing speed since adding blinkers 3 races back, was 2nd at level & distance 2 back on Aqueduct Inner, though was on a wet track. Had not produced that type of effort before but had been facing tougher before that. Also using the 4-Quai Voltaire.
RACE 2: Using only 2 here. The 3-WAR CANOE was 2nd/9 at level last race, beaten 2 1/4 lengths, but four lengths ahead of Ice Palace, who came back to win next out April 5 at this level. First off the claim for Gary Contessa, lightly raced horse has improved speed figs in each race. 5-Preziosa stretches out to the 8.5F distance after a late charging 3rd/8 last race at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct. Is 4 for 4 in the money since blinkers added.
RACE 3: The 2-INSTA EMMA ran a solid 3rd/10 in 4 year old debut April 20th at Keeneland in a similar level at 1 mile. An angle I’ve recently embraced is horses who had success at 3, making their 2nd start as a 4 year old. Has went the 7F trip once, a 1 length win at Belmont. Also using the 5-AVA’S KITTEN, who is making her 4 year old debut after winning a listed Stakes and being Grade 3 placed at three. Broke her maiden at Belmont in only 7 furlong race she’s ran, just not sure how cranked she’ll be for this race. 4-Ultimate Holiday is 0 for 3 on turf, but with the small field and little early speed elsewhere could be dangerous if allowed to set tempo.
RACE 4: The 1-FROST WISE ran 2nd out of 9 in debut at huge odds but ran a solid race, prompting pace and taking the lead in stretch before settling for 2nd, 4 lengths ahead of Show horse. The winner of that race, Holiday Disguise, came back to win next out as well. 3-Silly Sister was decently bet in 6 furlong debut on turf, had a lot of issues at the break, having been squeezed and having to check because of it. Didn’t show a lot to be honest, but Linda Rice is 27% 2nd career race and 31% turf to dirt. 6-Skyler’s Lil Cutie didn’t fare well in debut last August but was thought enough of to be bet down to 3-1 in a 10 horse field at Saratoga. Limited works leading into this race so may need a race or 2. She’s taking blinkers off from debut.
RACE 5: If we make it this far, then it all comes down to our single. Yes you heard me correctly, we’re singling in the payoff leg. The horse I’m potentially pinning my hopes to is 3-HOPONTHEBUSGUS. Now, I’m not really a big Paul Simon fan, but I will definitely be a fan of this horse if we’re still alive. Broke maiden on this course at today’s distance on October 27th by 2 1/4 lengths, coming from 4 1/2 lengths back in stretch. Tried him at a similar level running at today on dirt with poor result. Gets Irad and turf back. 8-Double Dose won last 2 races, including on May 10 here in a N3L. Draws post 8 today, which is not the most advantageous on the inner turf, for her sake hopefully she can get over from break, to save from having to go wide. 7-Awesome Quick also a logical contender but fear regression as he posted career best BRIS speed and pace figs last race.
So our Pick 5 looks something like this : 1,4,5,6/3,5/2,4,5/1,3,6/3 a $36 ticket for a $.50 play.
RACE 6: Lukewarm selection is 6-CALIFORNIA SWING. Since adding blinkers, has shown more pace before fading in last two, but is 2nd off the layoff for Clement (20%), 2nd time Lasix (23%), and pace should not be as taxing here as the previous races were for him. 7-Saraab is another high-priced colt for the Todd Pletcher barn. Will do best running late. 1-Borsa Vento won’t wow anyone with his turn of foot, but does run very evenly and has been the 8.5F distance twice before. It’s possible that he could win a battle of attrition.
RACE 7: Liking a bit of a shot here in 6-AUDRIQUE, 1st time blinkers, has perhaps best early speed in here and gets 7lb apprentice weight break. She is also 2nd off the layoff. 1-She’s Stunning was 4th last race, snapping a string of 4 races in a row in the money. Will be stalking pacesetter and try to come through on rail. 4-Clairvoyant Lady actually beat the 1 a couple races back. She is 1st off the claim for John Toscano (24%)
RACE 8: With half the field of 6 making their 2017 debut in this race, I was looking for someone with a race already his year to improve upon. I think 2-GOTACHANCETODANCE is that horse. Yes was only midpack in a 7-horse field last race, and in fact out of the money last 5 races. But has ran well at Belmont in the past, including a win at today’s distance. 4-Chicadoro has been off since last November where she closed 3 year old season with a win by 2 1/4 lengths. Clement is 22% bringing horses back from 90 days or more layoff and teams up with 21% turf rider Irad Ortiz. 1-Guilty Twelve is also making 2017 debut, had a 3 race in the money streak snapped her last race, but that was a $350K Stakes at Kentucky Downs, which is A LOT different than Belmont. Graham Motion 19% +90 days layoff. Small field but still a tough race to figure.
RACE 9: If you read my selections from 3 weeks ago you know my affinity for David Donk horses when they hit the New York turf in the springtime. So it should be little surprise that I’m taking 10-CONQUEST EXPRESSO. He is making 1st turf start, but has been placed in 2 turf races in the past that were taken off. Is also the first time horse is in for a claiming tag. Donk is not great with debuting turf runners but sire and damsire have respectable numbers with debuts. 4-Bookew Bucks making first start at 3, also 1st time in for tag. Does have a win on the course at today’s distance. 6-TONINA Exageres has never crossed the wire first, but is 3 for 3 ITM. Probably wants the added distance today from the 2 previous 5 furlong turf sprints he’s run.
That will do it for today. Enjoy the Black Eyed Susan card today and Preakness card tomorrow!
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