Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, April 13, 2017
We’ve got a mid-week special here on Danonymous Racing, with FREE picks & analysis of Aqueduct’s eight-race card. We have Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) giving his thoughts on the Thursday program.
We thank Steven for putting together this great write-up today on Danonymous Racing. Good luck if you’re playing along!
Take it away, Steven!
Thank you to all the loyal followers who have been following me on twitter and shapperdacapper.com. I am proud to announce that I am not a part of Team Danonymous and will be providing picks for NYRA on the weekends.
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing (followers cleaned up nicely on Sunday. I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info at NYRA. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Pick 5 Play – 3,4 / 3,4 / 1,2 / 2,4 / 2,4,5,6,7,9 = $48
Race 1- 3-4-1
#3- Roman Revival – Let’s start out the card with a BOOM! To be honest, this is more of a play against the chalk than an endorsement of this horse on top. Still there are things to like about the longest shot on the board. This big closer should get some pace to run into and I can easily throw his last couple of races out. This gelding clearly does not like a wet track and the two races prior to that had problems at the start of the race. If he goes back to his January 28th race he can win it. He is a must use underneath in exactas and triples.
#4- Portando – He is probably the one to beat as the ML favorite but might be paced compromised with #2 Baby Bear’s Soup in the race. Carmouche is one of the most underrated jockeys in the country and his aggressive style will clearly make sure he is on the lead. If Baby pushes him, it will soften things up for a closer. If Carmouche gets an easy lead…….game over.
#1- Sammy Wonder Stone – This 4YO gelding will go 2nd time off the private purchase for David Jacobson. I am usually never a fan of horses coming in from Parx and his two best races were on off tracks. Not for me.
Race 2- 3-2-4
#3- Roll Tide Roll – This seems like a race full of horses that all have negative angles and would normally want to avoid. So I will side with the horse with the least amount of red flags. It is hard to knock a horse who has cashed a check 10 out of his 13 lifetime races. Jason Servis has decent numbers dropping horses in class and he should be helped out by what appears to be a very fast pace on paper. The price is right.
#2- Risetotheoccasion- Those that have followed my write-ups know that I stay far away from Bruce Brown trained horses (feel free to ask me about my stories on when he trained my horses). He should sit a nice trip right off of the main speed but he is another whose best races have come on off tracks. In Bruce I trust…….never.
#4- Mewannarose – Complete transparency: I have tried to claim this horse twice and lost the shake each time. There are a bunch of red flags here. Rudy dropping horses is never a good thing and this time will be paced compromised. Throw in the fact that he did not put a jockey that he normally uses on this horse screams “please claim me”.
Race #3- 2-1-5
#2 – Dance Queen – Loyal followers of mine know that you must pay attention when “The Mile Master” is on a live one. Junior Alvarado is unreal at this distance and lands on the lone speed. Although it is early, turf speed has been kind and he can “walk around the track” on this horse who won his only time out in what is appearing to be a key race.
#1- Sophie German- Chad Brown and turf yadda yadda. This 3yo daughter of Algorithms looked ultra impressive winning first time out despite starting from the outside post and did so against a tough filly in Spanish Harlem. By far the one to beat.
#5- No Sweat- This Todd Pletcher daughter of Blame gets some class relief after knocking heads with some tough fillies in stakes company. Will attempt the move to the grass which is not one of Pletcher’s best angles.
Race 4- 2-4-3
#2- Monte Man – Jail move time (feel free to DM me for more info). It is my favorite angle and my most profitable one of the years. He gets a big trainer and jockey upgrade to Assmussen and Carmouche. His form is a bit “dirtied up” after some tough trips. He loves the track and is a viable option if you want to play against the favorite.
#4- Proud Zip – Jail move time……again. The only difference is that this one gets a negative trainer switch. He might be able to have things his own way up front with no other speed signed on but Franco is not the strongest jockey on the lead.
#3- Toohottoevenspeak – See my above comment on Bruce Brown and apply it to Michael Luzzi. He is the Bruce Brown of jockeys in my opinion. Hard to endorse a horse that loves to cash checks but is “camera shy”
Late Pick 4 Play – 2,4,5,6,7,9 / 1,2,3,5,6 / 2 / 2,4,6,9 = $60
Race 5- 4-9-7
#4- Empty House – I have a fascination with Maiden Claimers on turf. I actually did a 3 year study (will post the write-up this weekend) where the average odds of the winner was 11-1 at NYRA. This type of race often produces major payouts (just look at the finale on Wednesday as an example). I will try to get this 4-1 ML shot home with Alvarado on board. He has two decent tries on the turf against much tougher on his resume. The return to the green is probably where he wants to be long term.
#9- Chorite – This 2nd time starter is where I will try to make the big bucks underneath. She is bred to like the turf as a daughter of Court Vision and I will toss out her attempt on the dirt as a prep for this spot. She is 12-1 ML and I expect it to be even higher come post time.
#7- Questeq- I never endorse favorites in this spot because of the amount of prices that come in on top. She has the best turf speed numbers but has still failed to finish in the top 3. Use underneath but not worth the short price on top.
Race 6- 2- ENTRY-3
#2- Clairvoyant Lady – If she breaks cleanly (which she clearly has had trouble doing), I think she is by far the one to beat here. She should be able to close on the rail into a fast pace and outclass these……again if she can break well. The extra half furlong only helps her cause.
Entry – On paper the Linda Rice entry looks much the best. However, one of the worst angles at NYRA is betting Linda Rice when she is dropping horses in class. They rarely win, and when they do, they do not pay well and often just nose out a victory. One of the two horses will scratch and of the two I would lean toward On the Fringe.
#3- Spirit Lets Hearit – She clearly did not like the off going in her last and can improve in this spot if Diaz does not contest the lead. Contender at a price.
Race 7- 2-3-1
#2- Big Guy Ian- How about another Boom in a short field? This jail move goes first off the claim for trainer John Toscano who does his best work in these situations. He gets a big weight break and that will only help if he gets an easy lead which is conceivable given the pace scenario. I anticipate he being in the lead the first 6 furlongs and hope to hold on the last half at a huge price.
#3- Eighty Three – David Jacobson has done a great job with the former Wes Welker owned horse (hence the name). He gets the edge over Classy Class who he beat last time out at similar prices.
#1- Classy Class – He can be sent on the lead or back off and rate. That decision will make or break the entire race. I am hoping that he sits back knowing that he won’t get the lead with my top pick in the race. If he does that he is likely to hit the board. If he sends, they set it up for 83.
Race 8- 4-6-9
#4- Freckle de Freck – This is another maiden claimer on turf to close the day. I will side with the best price of those with decent turf races. Additionally this is a 4yo running against mostly 3yos (Another angle I love). He seems like a bit of a plodder but does not need much to beat these. One to definitely include at a price underneath and a definite include on multis for a big hit.
#6- Hyde Park Express – In my opinion he is by far the horse to beat and did not put him on top because I think the 7/2 ML is a pipe dream. If he is anything more than 5/2 I may run to the windows to bet him. He is another 4yo running against younger horses with the best turf races in his form.
#9- Pure Gemmz – I like the move back to the turf after chasing 1st time out on the turf back in November. I expect an improvement 2nd time out on the turf and rates a decent chase to upset at a nice price.
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