Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, November 26, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
I will be live tweeting from the track so feel free to come by and say hi or tweet away. The board has been very live so I will, as always, tweet live updates based on track, value and scratched. Let’s keep the hot streak going. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 5 / 1,5,8,10 / 4,5 / 1,4,5 / 4,7,8 = $36
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 2,5 / 1,3,4,5,8,10,12 / 4,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 4,7,8,11 = $224
Race 1- 5-2-4
#5- Arbitrator – Of the two horses taking big drops, this is the horse I want the most and the horse that I think is the one to beat. Last time out he lost to Cloud Contol who is entered into the 3rd race; a NY bred stakes race. Prior to that he ran into two straight speed biased tracks that prevented him from a strong closing move including the August 13th race where he lost to next out winner Control Group.
#2- Try Flying- He will attempt to make it 4 wins in 5 starts and has fared well on this track and distance.
#4- Conquest Bigluck E – This screams bad favorite from every angle. Claiming from Robert Diodoro is not a profitable angle and when Linda drops horses in class it is usually not a good sign. Horse on paper looks like the horse to beat but sharp handicapper should see all the holes this horse has. He will be overbet and must use defensively on multi-race wagers but this is the type of horse you would like for exchange wagering.
#6- Nominal Dollars- Horse has run into a bunch of tough starts and tough breaks. Worth a look on larger tickets.
Race 2- 5-10-8
#5- Smooth Move – Let’s come out swinging today in race 2. Here are just a few angles I love on this horse:
- Rice 2nd time out – 30% winners
- Alvarado at the mile (Mile master)
- Exits a race with next out winner Sea Foam who is running in the 7th race; a 100K stake race.
- 12-1 ML? I’ll bite
#10- Work of Art- Here is a another price that I can’t resist. First time out on the turf he ran a competitive 3rd, finishing only a length behind the winner. That was the same race as my top pick and chased 4-5 wide around the entire track. Trainer Thomas Morley rarely has them ready first time out, so this is a much more likely spot for this horse. Throw out his last race which came on the dirt (not sure why) where he took a ton of money and this has the look of a live contender at a great price.
#8- News Anchor- He is the horse to beat but is also looking like a money burner. He has had a couple of excuses including trouble at the gate and the jockey losing the whip. If not now, then when.
A few other interesting longshots include:
#1- Mr. Vincent- Do you really want to eliminate a Rudy horse the way he has been running? Finished right behind the favorite last time out.
#3- Now a Factor- His first and third races are throw outs because he was eliminated at the start. His 2nd race was a competitive race and if he improves slightly off that figure he is a top contender.
#12- Magnetron- Jose Lezcano is lethal when he is routing on the outside in turf races. Do not ignore.
Race 3- 5-4-3
#5- Disruptor – Trainer Christophe Clement is a silly 45% winners when going from MSW to MCL. That is a hard percentage to ignore in a race where it is hard to have strong opinion.
#4- Archival- He is the most likely winner and has the fastest figs. Last time out he caught the wrong end to a speed/inside favoring track and a slow pace. Two back he actually finished in first but was taken down. He is logical and will be about 3/5 in the multi-race bets.
#3- Brancato- Of the price horses, this is the value play. A lot of changes happening here including going turf/dirt, route/sprint. He should be on the engine in a race that lacks speed. With bottom level claimers, that is something that must be respected.
Race 4- 1/1A-4-5-6
#1&1a – 8-1 on a double Jail Move entry? How can I resist. Both horses love track and Robert Diodoro is successful with these moves. They are both older horses going against mostly younger and both horses like to win races. Again 12-1. Sign me up on a win bet and a huge trifecta bet with the duo wheeled underneath.
4- Favorable Outcome- He is by far the horse to beat as a recent Grade 2 winner. He probably needed his last and can expect an improvement here. But I will rarely endorse 3/5 shots that are lightly raced, going against older horses and has not shown the ability to run on an off track. Will probably win by 5 of course.
5-Harlan Punch- David Jacobson has done a great job with this horse and rates a huge upset shot.
6- Skyler’s Scramjet – I would not leave off your tickets.
Race 5- 8-7-4
#8- Empressof the Nile – I am completely against the ML favorite here (who says that about a Chad Brown horse?). The horse just looks slower than these and has already been beaten by a few of the main contenders. So why back this horse at short odds? I almost landed on Church Social who always seems to cash a check but tends to get a bit camera shy. So I landed on the horse that figures to be the lone speed with a change in jockey who is a master at getting horses home in wire-to-wire fashion. Last time out the connections thought enough of her to enter in a Grade 2 where she had no shot. Prior to that she broke her maiden at this distance by 6 lengths and beat the ML favorite. If they let her walk……we can walk to the windows.
#7- Church Social- The aforementioned steady check earner is probably the horse to beat but I had taken short priced horses who don’t like to win with her only win being on a less than fast turf course. She is a must to use in your “Jason Perry Superman” wagers.
#4- Palinodie- This is a very interesting horse for Clement. It is clear that the horse came to the states to enjoy the hard turf course and was immediately entered into the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap. Although she finished 7th that day she did not embarrass herself and was only a little over a length from the winner. Then at Saratoga, she was bumped hard at the gate and take off her game. She has a right to improve and rather a horse with upside than the ML favorite who has had trouble beating most of these.
Conservative Pick 4 Play – 4 / 1,2,3,5,6,8 / 1,2,4 / 4 = $9
Aggressive Pick 4 Play – 1,2,4,10 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,2,4,8 / 2,4,10 = $96
Race 6- 4-10-1
#4- PowerStroke – This is a pretty strong play for me as I really do not see anyone else that I love. Last time out this horse went off half the price of the ML favorite and now will be longer odds despite finishing just behind him. Prior to that, he lost to Jaye Jaye who just won on Thursday’s card and did so impressively, albeit on the dirt. First time out he also faced a tough bunch so this will be the easiest field he will face in his early career and gets a major jockey upgrade to Luis Saez.
#10- Stormy Justin- The mile master is on board and the horse finally gets a nice outside post. Look for him to get out early and sit right behind the early speed and sit a great trip.
#1- Ten Eyck- His first 3 races have not really shown much but Tom Morley usually improves each time out. He finally gets an inside post after being on the outside the first two races. Maybe saving ground will get this horse a piece.
Race 7- 1-8-5
#1- Inalienable Rights- I often look for prices in these two-year old races as the best horse does not often win. Instead look for horses that have a right to improve which 2-3YO horses often do. At 8-1, I have to try to get this horse home. He looked impressive winning first time out and then came right back to run an improving number finishing right behind Aveenu Michanu who has turned into a very nice runner. His last two races were clearly longer than he wants to go and now gets the cutback he has been asking for. Look for a nice ground saving trip to set up his closing kick. If a couple of these fight up front, he will be flying home.
#8- Stoney Bennett – Another cutback horse will most likely try to send early from the outside post. If any of the 2,3,or 5 send and fight for the lead, it will set it up for the closers. If they concede the lead to Stoney, he might walk home.
#5- Sea Foam- All he does is cash checks. Might be more of a plodder type but must be respected and a right to improve with these connections.
Race 8- 2-4-1
#2- Fire Key- I will admit I hate handicapping turf sprints. There are too many variables and often it’s a blanket finish. That in mind, I have to take a slight price. She just was nosed out by the ML favorite last time out and now gets a firm course which is more to her liking. The 6 is the likely pace setter but I would not be shocked to see either Paco send from the inside post or just sit right off of the speed. She should get first jump on the ML favorite at twice the price.
#4- Stormy Victoria- She clearly likes the 6-7 Furlong distance and should be aided by a track that has been kind to closers. In my opinion , she is your most likely winner despite being 2nd choice in the ML.
#1- First of Spring- Chad Brown, blah blah blah. He can’t win every turf race right? I am also not a big fan of horses from the rail in turf sprints. She will most likely drop back to last and need to make one big move around turn…….like she did last time out.
#8- Always Thinking- Don’t sleep on this price horse who when given this type of company has been successful. She will be another closer who will hope for some pace upfront and should be able to sit a better trip than the other closers. Don’t overlook
Race 9- 4-10-2
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