Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, November 19, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
With heavy rain in the forecast, please follow me for live updated picks. We had a great day last Sunday and followers cleaned up yesterday. Let’s keep the hot streak going. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – Will Post after scratched
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- Will Post after scratched
Race 1- 2-4-6
#2- Seethisquick – A small but competitive field to start the Sunday card. If you throw out his last race on the turf he has faced some top notch competition and gets the much needed class relief that might put him in the winner’s circle. I would like to see Paco Lopez send with the rail post and hopefully the chalk doesn’t beat us into the ground.
#4- Fooch – He is by far the horse to beat and Wesley Ward has unreal numbers with maidens returning off long layoffs. During his first voyage he finished behind two monsters including one of the fastest three-year olds in the game in Copper Town. He might be 2-5 and is a must use in the multi-race wagers but far from a single.
#6- Disruptor- Will be forwardly placed and must throw into the money on the 44% angle of Clemente dropping horses into the Maiden Claimer ranks.
Race 2- 7-1-3
#7- Arbitrator – Of the two horses taking big drops, this is the horse I want the most and the horse that I think is the one to beat. Last time out he lost to Cloud Contol who is entered into the 3rd race; a NY bred stakes race. Prior to that he ran into two straight speed biased tracks that prevented him from a strong closing move including the August 13th race where he lost to next out winner Control Group.
#1- Try Flying- He will attempt to make it 4 wins in 5 starts and has fared well on this track and distance.
#3- Conquest Bigluck E – This screams bad favorite from every angle. Claiming from Robert Diodoro is not a profitable angle and when Linda drops horses in class it is usually not a good sign. Horse on paper looks like the horse to beat but sharp handicapper should see all the holes this horse has. He will be overbet and must use defensively on multi-race wagers but this is the type of horse you would like for exchange wagering.
#4- Nominal Dollars- Horse has run into a bunch of tough starts and tough breaks. Worth a look on larger tickets.
Race 3- 2-5-6
#2- Sudden Surprise – This will be my top pick, especially if the expected rain comes to make the track less than fast. Last time out he endured a little bumping at the start that forced him to get in bad position. He then was asked to chase a snail pace that he could not recover from. Prior to that he was on a 3-race win streak including beating next out winner, Mr. Buff. He is 3 for 5 on wet tracks and should be able to sit right off of Loki’s Revenge in the perfect position. 5-1 will be a steal and will be making a strong win bet.
#5- Loki’s Revenge- On paper he should be alone on the lead and a main contender to win this race for the 3rd year in a row. He will get the huge upgrade to Jose Ortiz who was the jockey on both of those stakes wins. My only questions are, what happened to him last race and is he good enough to overcome his dislike for wet surfaces? A must use, but will try to beat.
#6- Gold for the King- He definitely gets upgrade a bit on the wet track but I wonder if his two-year old campaign took too much out of him.
#4- Nobody Move- He can sneak into the money if the track comes up anything less than fast.
Race 4- 8-9-5 (Turf) 3-1-10 (Dirt)
Race 5- 6-4-5
#6- Shalako – For complete transparency I know this is a sucker bet on my part but I can’t resist. This is a giant Jail Move and here is why. I understand that there is a change of surface which I normally do not like but turf races are usually higher purses proportionally than dirt races. In Nyra here is usually the breakdown:
10k – 16k claimer dirt races = 25k claimer turf races
20k-30k claimer dirt races = 40k claimer turf races
In this instance, the horse is going from a 25k turf race (or bottom level dirt company) to the 40k dirt company. This is a huge move. I wish Nevin wasn’t claiming from Rice and I wish the horse had better races on the off-tracks but I have no choice but to make a nice wager on this horse.
#4- Abiding Star- Has a legit shot to wire the field at a nice price. There is just no other speed that can run with this horse and he might get brave on the lead and make it four wins in a row. Jersey Joe Bravo tends to have a big day every now and then when he ships up to NY. A must use.
5- Mills- He is as steady as they come but does not like to win races. A great “Jason Perry Superman” horse who is likely to hit the board.
2- Wabel- A jail move that should be included on saver tickets. Pino does well with this move and the stretch out in distance should help.
Pick 4 ticket – Will Post after scratched
Race 6- 9-5-10 (turf only) 2-3-10 (Dirt Only)
Race 7- 4-3-11-1a (turf only) 8-1-6 (Dirt only)
Race 8- 2-Entry – 3 – 1-Entry
2-Entry – 12-1 on a double Jail Move entry? How can I resist. Both horses love the off tracks and Robert Diodoro is successful with these moves. They are both older horses going against mostly younger and both horses like to win races. Again 12-1. Sign me up on a win bet and a huge trifecta bet with the duo wheeled underneath.
3- Favorable Outcome- He is by far the horse to beat as a recent Grade 2 winner. He probably needed his last and can expect an improvement here. But I will rarely endorse 3/5 shots that are lightly raced, going against older horses and has not shown the ability to run on an off track. Will probably win by 5 of course.
- Harlan Punch- David Jacobson has done a great job with this horse and rates a huge upset shot.
5- Skyler’s Scramjet – I would not leave off your tickets.
Race 9- 10-5-6 (Turf Only) 1-10-7 (Dirt Only)
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