Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, November 12, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
It is good to be back at the Big A. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 3,5,7 / 1 / 7 / 9,10 / 5,6,9 = $9 (Many many times)
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 3,4,5,7,8 / 1,2 / 1,4,6,7 / 4,8,9,10 / 5,9 = $160
Race 1- 3-7-5
#3- Electric – We start the day with a tough Maiden Special Weight where most of the horses who have ran are coming out of the October 15th race at Belmont (it was a good one thanks to our top pick China Rider). This is a race where I want to spread and hope to have a price. I will make this my top pick based on the price and the chance he can wire the field with little to no other speed in the race. Here are a few others to consider:
4- In it For the Gold- She should be sitting off of my top pick and in a perfect chance to trip out for top connections. Tough to take a short price with a low percentage trainer on turf and a horse who has had a knock of coming into 3rd. Might improve 2nd time on the green.
#5- Bail- Ran a nice 2nd first time out and can improve with that experience under his belt.
#7- Samara- Had a rough trip first time out and took no action on the toteboard. Regardless, she has a right to improve off of that effort and the family has a few winners on turf.
#8- Spanker- If you are looking for a crazy price to start the day, why not take your shot with this horse. His first try on the turf came in his maiden voyage and only finished a length behind the winner in a race that included future stakes winner Bellavais. He has also had two recent attempts on the turf where he stumbled at the start. With a clean break, why not give this hose another shot at a huge price.
Race 2- 1-2-5
#1- Pico Chick – I believe this is a two horse race so I will go with the better of the two prices and the horse not coming off a vet scratch. Last time out she was able to close into a race track that favored front runners despite spotting the field a few steps. A repeat of his last make him a winner.
#2- Big Mara- She will most likely be a short price and would not surprise me if she won. However, there are a few red flags including:
- Comes into this race off a vet scratch
- Going first off the claim on a negative trainer switch (0 for last 11 going first off the claim)
- Will the extra furlong hurt her?
Race 3- 7-4-1
#7- San Juan Diego – This is the type of race where you either single the chalk or hit the all button since anyone else can win this race. Here are the angles I like to make this a possible single:
- Horse sold for 36x the sire fee. Usually these types of horses win and win early
- Last time out he raced wide the entirety of the race because of breaking from the 11 post.
- Showed early speed and a similar break should put him right off the leaders and a good chance to pounce.
- The cutback in distance will probably help.
4- Flash Drive- Has a legit chance to wire the field.
Race 4- 10-9-8
#10 Filfila and #9 Cyrielle exit a key race where the top two finishers came back to win next time out including Rushing Fall who is not a Breeders Cup champion. Chad Brown has been in a bit of a funk the past few days but of the two horses he has here, I much rather his outside runner.
#8- Burak- This is an interesting horse to fill out your trifecta. He did a bit of running first time out and David Donk has decent numbers stretching horses 2nd time out.
Race 5- 5-9-6
#5- My Boy Tate – In a race full of early speed, at least on paper, I want a horse who will come off the pace. I land on this horse who has yet to run a clean race and still has run impressively each time out. With a clean trip he can spring a minor upset.
#9- Doc Roc – He looks much the best on paper and has been a completely different horse since getting into the Brian Lynch barn. However, eh will be a very short price and although his last two have been his best races, he appeared to have a bit of hang in him.
#6- Benelovance- He is one of two four year olds in the race (although that is less of an angle this time of year). He should be coming from the clouds and if the race collapse he can beat this field.
Pick 4 Play = 1 / 1,2,3,6,7,12 / 2,3,4,5 / 1,2 = $24
Race 6- 1-2-4
#1- Doyouknowsomething – This is as strong a single as I see on this card. For the life of me I do not see anyone that can run with him early. He should be able to walk around the track unless the Chicago bred (inside joke) Chad Brown horse is the real deal. Ill take my chances that he isn’t.
#2- Kurilov- I could not find any replays on this horse but do you want to take a short price on a horse you have never seen just because of the connections? Normally Chad Brown would take his top foreign horses right into a stakes race. The fact he isn’t here and his recent slump suggest that this horse is not one of his better ones.
#4- Backsideofthemoon- He might be the only horse that can sit right off of my top pick. Not sure if he is good enough however.
Race 7- 3-2-1
#3- Five Each Way- This will be my top price play of the day at her generous 12-1 ML odds. This is the type of horse that I love because her form is “dirtied up” and might be hard to find the race that makes her a winner. Let’s take a closer look:
Sept 24th race – Form says she went six-wide around the turn. Might have been nine-wide and cost her any chance at continuing her closing move. She goes off at a higher price than Kitty Madness despite running the better race that day at longer odds.
Aug 25th race- A stakes race on dirt – Toss
Aug 10th race- Ran a 75 beyer which puts her in contention in this race. Ran that figure in a race that produced a couple of next out winners and did so while rallying on a track that was favoring speed.
4 of her 5 prior races all had troubled trips. A clean trip here makes her a winner at a big price. LETS GET EM.
#2- Queen of the Castle- Will be your most likely favorite come post time off her last effort. This will be only her 2nd race since July which is a concern for a trainer that does not do her best work on the turf.
#1- Pinchbeck – Will have to work out a closing trip from the rail which is not the easiest thing to do. A clean trip makes this the horse to beat.
Race 8- 2-4-5
#2- Bee Noteworthy – In a race full of speed this horse should appreciate coming off the pace and gets an additional furlong to turn the tides on Wonderment. That day she got nosed out despite closing into a track that was kind to speed. She has not been out of the trifecta in her last 10 races so you know you will get a good effort.
#4- Bluegrass Jamboree- She might be one of the best NY-bred filly sprinters right now and will be tough to beat. Only a pace duel can soften her up………but that is what is projected to occur.
Race 9- 1-2-12
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