Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, March 18, 2018
There’s nine races at Aqueduct on this Sunday afternoon, with no stakes races, but plenty of great action nonetheless. Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
It has been awhile since I have had a write-up on a day where we should be running on a fast track. Don’t worry if you are still hung over from St. Patty’s Day. I got you covered. Make sure to check back with me on changes based on the track condition. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 1,3,4 / 5 / 4 / 1,2,6 / 3,4,8 = $13.50
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,2,3,4 / 3,5 / 1,4 / 1,2,6 / 3,4,8 = $72
Race 1- 1-3-4
#1- Quest for Fire- I want nothing to do with the horses that have already run. This field is filled with runners who cash checks but scared of the wire. I will take the best of the firsters. This one has winners in the family including the dam that has produced 2 winners from 3 starters including a stakes winner. The rail is not ideal but I am throwing a dart to start off the pick 5.
#3- Pirate’s Treasure – I guess he is the one to beat and has definitely come out of the toughest races. A popular angle is the horse coming off the longest layoff. It is hard to take him at a short price on top considering the layoff and the cutback in distance. The hood might help and if they try to put him in front early, the lack of speed signed on might help his chances.
#4- Givetheman a Cigar- Can’t knock his last race in where he list to next out winner Midnight Mission. He might find himself on the lead with top jockey Dylan Davis. A must use.
Race 2- 5-6-4
#5- Amanda Lane – I hate taking chalk in cheap MCL races but I can’t find an alternative. Mccarthy should have this one alone on the lead and Levine has great numbers going 2nd off the layoff. One of my favorite angles is when a horse gets back to doing what they did first time out. Her first race last July was on a fast track. Since they she has only see turf and wet surfaces. She should get a fast track again and if the track is playing kind to speed or is fair, she should walk around the track. It is either single or “ALL” in this spot.
#6- Catchmewithasmile- She might be a “wise guy” play but there is no way I am playing a Bruce Brown horse that just left the Rudy barn.
#4- I Like Your Style- Might be a live firster but the bloodlines leave something to be desired and Englehart does not do well with MCL’s first time out.
Race 3- 4-1-5
#4- Forever Liesl – This is more of a play against the Rudy favorite who I think is a terrible favorite. Michelle Nevin does a decent job off long layoffs and this horse has had some nice races against tougher down in Maryland. I expect Manny Franco to be in a perfect stalking position on the outside and if she is the better horse, can put them away in the stretch.
#1- Total Control- This horse is very dangerous but I think might be compromised by the post. I see a situation where Paco gets stuck behind the speed and unless the rails opens up will be forced to alter his course… even in a 5 horse field. The past few races he has had to go wide when stuck on the rail.
#5- Smile Big- His two biggest speed numbers have come on rail bias days. Take those numbers out and he has speed figures that would actually take him out of the money. Rudy dropping him is the tell tale sign. Buyer beware!
Race 4- 6-1a-2
#6- St. Patrick Frost- How do I not play this horse on St. Patty’s day weekend? He should have the lead by default on paper and might get brave a good price. Hunch play of the day. I’ll be wearing my 4-leaf clover at the IRS window if he scores with my pot of gold.
#1a- Full of Mine- Normally I would just type “entry” when I like either part of the entry but this one is by far and away the better of the two horses. He has the fastest figures by far but will be a short price with a few red flags that include:
- Has lost 3 times at this level already
- Has never won on a fast track
- Will be attempting to close with a lack of speed on paper
2- Best Surprise- He has only lost 4 races. That stat alone puts him in the mix. He also has the ability to be up close early which is a huge advantage in a race with almost no speed.
Race 5- 8-4-3
#8- Coexistence – I love playing the sire Violence who hits at a 22% rate first time out. It is a little interesting that Chad Brown left this horse in NY instead of bringing her down south with his big guns. That is a bit concerning but she will be the better price of the three horses that have a shot to win this race.
#4- Lady Subee- The money-burner for Chad Brown has done nothing but finish 2nd. If Chad’s firster can run, I see no reason why she won’t buck that trend here.
#3- Warrior Of Light- Paco should have her running fast early. She might have an edge over the 2nd choice who is not likely to get to the rail with the other speed on the inside. These three horses and no more to close out the Pick 5.
Conservative Pick 4 – 2,7 / 4 / 6 / 1,4,5,6,7,9 = $6
Aggressive Pick 4 – 2,3,7 / 1,3,4 / 4,6 / 1,4,5,6,7,9 = $54
Race 6- 2-7-3
#2- Conquest Twister – You know me and my jail moves. Automatic play. However there are a few things to note here. First this is a Level 2 jail move which downgrades the move. 2nd, it is interesting that this is a reclaim for Diodoro and the owners. Yet, they chose not to go back to their “go-to” jockey in Angel Arroyo. Was that because they did not like the ride he gave last time out? Or is it because of a lack of confidence? Either way, he is my tepid choice on the jail move.
#7- Major League- This is a 2nd off the Jail move for Rudy Rodriguez. He should be in a nice stalking position with the outside post and a bunch of speed on paper. Logical
#3- Valyrian- It is hard to improve horses from the Diodoro barn but I am always curious about Mark Casse horses first off the claim since this is not what he normally does. When he does claim, watch out.
Race 7- 4-3-1
#4- Gobi- This is a wide open race with a lot of angles happening. One of the more fascinating things about this race is that it appears most of these horses prefer an off-track. One of the few exceptions is my top pick who clearly likes a fast track. I am getting the power team of Carmouche and Gargan and the fact that Gargan has protected this horse off a rough race is a positive. They are putting the hood on this horse and I am hoping that does the trick. I think she will be more like 6-1 and at that price, I’ll jump on her. Let’s get em.
#3- Leah’s Dream- A level 2 Jail move coming into this race on a three-race win streak. She is the horse to beat and loves this track but I wonder if she needs moisture to run her A-game.
#1- Miss Sizzle- If you are looking for a price play, then here you go. When Linda Rice gets aggressive, it is for a reason. At 12-1, do not leave her off your tickets.
Race 8- 6-4-2
#6- Sugarille – I want to chilllllll…..at Sugar hill. I don’t trust The Cake is a Lie on the short rest despite having a huge pace advantage.
Race 9- 9-7-5
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