Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, January 28, 2018
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. There’s an nine-race card, including the Ruthless Stakes, for 3-year-old fillies. The first post time will be 12:20 PM EST.
Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
The track of late, especially this week, has been extremely kind to inside speed. The only horses that were able to make up considerable ground were horses that rode the rail. I have handicapped today based on that track trend and hope it continues. Let’s see if it stays the same. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 1,2,3,5 / 4 / 5/ 2 / 2,5,7,11 = $8
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,2,3,5 / 4,7 / 5 / 2,3 / 1,2,5,6,7,8,11 = $56
I literally crossed each of the 5 horses off because there are huge strikes against each of them. Let’s go one by one and see if we can find a winner:
- Platoon Leader – A very expensive 4yo son of Harlan’s Holiday for Jason Servis. Servis has gotten better with his maiden starters and draws the rail so if he can show some speed, the track may take him the rest of the way.
- Zonic- He does a great job cashing checks but does everything in his power to avoid taking a picture. It would not shock me if this is where he breaks his maiden since this might be the weakest field he has faced in sometime but it is hard to take these type of horses at a short price
- Midnight Mission- A lot to like here but also a few red flags.
- Pletcher and Franco are very successful together
- I love horses that go for over 15x their sire price
- Damn has 1 winner from 1 starter
- I hate, hate, hate playing older Pletcher Maidens.
- Okeamo – He is probably an outsider looking in but the dam does have 7 winners from 9 starters.
- Givetheman a Cigar – He has been getting slightly better each time out. Should be sitting off the lead and in a great stalking position with the outside post.
Selections – 5-3-2
Race 2- 4-6-7
#4- Woundwithhereyes – Whoever goes for the lead has a huge advantage and I think it might be the ML chalk.
#6- Three Eighty Eight- She is another who loves cashing checks but refuses to win. No reason to think today will be any different.
#7- This Bird Can Sing- With Carmouche on board, you can expect an aggressive ride which alone makes her a contender. Can’t expect an improvement off her last after being claimed away from a top barn.
Race 3- 5-1-3
#5- Forever Rising- Yet another race where it looks like no one will want the lead. I’ll trust Rudy and “The Mile Master” to get the job done. This horse has the ability to have a little tactical speed and has excuses from her last two races. Last time out she stumbled at the start and was forced to go wide throughout the race. Prior to that race she was hung wide on a speed biased track. No excuses today.
#1- Blank Page- Linda Rice does not do her best job with horses going first time out but there are no world beaters here. It is also not a good sign that she entered this one at a bottom level claimer race.
#3- Factoring- I am against this horse who has yet to do any running on the dirt.
Race 4- 2-3
#2- Perina’s Pride – In what looks like a two-horse race, I will take the one that figures to be the better price and a pace edge.
#3- Doinwhatshelikes – This 6yo mare will be going first time out for Trainer Rudy Rodiguez but on the class drop. She will need someone to go with my top choice or she might be a few steps short of the winner’s circle.
Race 5- 7-2-11
#7- Too Fast to Pass – In what is easily the best race of the Pick 5 sequence, I regrettably land on the ML favorite. He should be sitting right off of Bluegrass Singer and in the perfect spot to pounce before the big closers kick in. It is always concerning liking a horse who hasn’t won in over a year but he might have found the right spot.
#2- Conquest Twister- I almost put this one on top just because of the value. He ran seven days ago and never looked comfortable while running on the rail which was not the place you wanted to be on the 21st. Usually big drops in class signals as a big red flag but this is a successful move for trainer Jermemiah Englehart. Watch the changes since I do not expect jockey Eric Cancel to be on this horse. Jockey change will be huge.
#11- Power Nap- He was scratched out of Saturday’s card to run in this much tougher spot. I like that angle and has speed figures that fit here. The outside post should not be an issue for this closer. If the 7 and 8 battle each other early, this is your most likely benefactor.
Pick 4 Play – 3,5,6,7,8,9 / 2,7 / 6 / 3,4,5,6,7 = $30
Race 6- 5-3-9
#5- Flipped- Not a lot to go in this tough NY-bred Maiden race for 3yos. I’ll take a small shot with this first time starter for Englehart who does a decent job with Maiden Claimers first time out and this one is bred to win early (Dam 17% winners first time out and 5 winners from 7 starters).
#3- Ever Young- Linda Rice is a genius when it comes to sending horses out for a second time and this one looks like a solid pick. First time out she was bet well for a Rice firster and lost to a next-out winner despite having a terrible break. She has had quite a long time to get this horse ready and looks primed to win here. My only concern is the slight drop in tag price which is usually a red flag for Rice. Still a must use.
#9- Merger of Banks- I bet him last time and he looked terrible. I am not sure if something went wrong but I will take it as a positive sign that they enter him here right back after only a 7 day layoff.
Race 7- 7-2-4
#7- Uncle Sigh- This is such a terrible bet but has all the angles I love all in one shot. 4-1 ML on a Rudy Jail move, going turf to dirt, and with the Mile Master, I have no choice. These angles had me saying…….UNCLE.
#2- Broken Engagement- He looks much the horse to beat on the drop in class. He has faced tons better and last time had an excuse chasing a snail-like pace. Your likely winner.
#4- Clutch Cargo – His lone dirt win was in the off going so he will have to prove that he can win on a fast surface. He has faced tougher including the ML favorite. He is very dangerous.
Race 8- 6-1-5
Race 9- 6-3-7
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