Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, February 4, 2018
It may be the biggest day of the NFL season on Sunday, but there’s also 9 races to be had at Aqueduct. The first of them will go off at 12:50 PM EST.
Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
Welcome to Super Sunday. Some are excited for a football game but I am excited for 9 solid races in New York. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 1,5 / 2,4,7 / 2 / 1 / 2,4,5 = $9
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,3,5 / 2,4,5,6,7 / 2,6 / 1,7,8 / 2,4,5 = $135
Race 1- 5-Entry-3
#5- Sara Street- This is probably a wise guy pick but I will take a small shot against the entry which figures to be a heavy favorite. This horse has been given some time to rest after dueling first time out down south. That early zip will be useful on a track that has been very kind to horses on or need the lead. That race has already produced a next out winner and does not have to improve by much to be a key contender.
Chad Brown Entry- The entry looks like a formidable pair and one that will likely go off at odds on. Lady Suebee should be the pace setter and her last can be excused since it came on the off-going. Prior to that she ran a very competitive speed figure which if reproduced here will make her the likely winner. Oozle is a 190k purchase that has looked very good in the AM.
#3- Problem Solving- She lost first time out at odds of 2/5 after getting hit at the start. She will be going first off the claim for trainer Charlton Baker on a jail move.
Race 2- 2-7-4
#2- Dig That Mine- This top pick has a lot of mixed messages. On one hand he looked really impressive last time out beating a horse that would probably crush this field. However he did that on a day where he rode the rail to victory. He will also have to carry that speed four more furlongs as he is stretching out for the first time. The stretch out should not be too much of an issue as trainer Steve Klesaris has a very good percentage stretching horses out. My tepid top pick.
#7- Cain Is Abel- CIA is another horse that is sending mixed messages. Last time out he was able to beat next out winner in Belleville Spring in an impressive manner. However, that was done in only a 3 horse field on an off-track. This will be the first time he gets a fast track. If he improves even slightly on a fast track or stretching out, they will all be running for second.
#4- Big Thicket- He has the best figures at this distance but did so on an off track. He is 1 for 1 on the off track but 0 for 4 on a fast track. He will need to prove he can do it on a fast track if I am going to endorse at a short price.
Race 3- 2-6-3
#2- Bourbon Did It- If you are looking for a possible single with some value then here is your huckleberry. He did no running first time out but that was sprinting in the slop. I love horses that go for 15x the sire fee as this son of Mission Impazible has gone for. If we forgive his first attempt then this is basically he first real attempt at trying to win a race. Trainer Jason Servis hits at 40% stretching horses out and gets top rider Manny Franco aboard. At 6-1, sign me up. Let’s get em.
#6- Lutheran Rags- He has the look of a closer and that alone puts him at a disadvantage. He is likely to hit the board at a short price but hard to endorse on top with an 0 for 7 record.
#3- Mr. President – Anyone who tells me that this 7/5 ML is a single will get me to say #fakenews. He has yet to run a decent race on a fast track but should be forwardly placed. I want nothing to do with this horse with a low percentage rider as a favorite.
Race 4- 1-7-8
#1- Toohottoevenspeak – Assuming that the track is playing fair or kind to the rail, this horse should be one of the stronger plays of the day. He projects as a closing sprinter but should get a decent pace setup. I will feel more comfortable if I knew that jockey Angel Arroyo would be closer to the leader at the half way mark but is the one to beat on speed figures.
#7- Nut Nut- He is projected to be part of the speed on paper but gets an edge by not needing the lead to win.
#8- Delta Outlaw- he is projected to be the speed of the speed and with the outside draw. Exits the same race as my top two picks but will once again be compromised by that outside post and other speeds.
Race 5- 4-5-2
#4- Simona- She looks like the one to beat in the payout leg of the Pick 5. Last time out she lost to next out winner Midnight Disguise who won the Bushanda. The cutback should suit this horse perfectly.
#5- Lune Lake- I feel like I have been chasing this horse for awhile now. Last time out she looked much the best but got disqualified after taking out half the field at the start.
#2- Martina Momma- Jason Servis is always dangerous and hits at 36 on horses debuting in the MCL ranks.
Pick 4 Play – 1,4,5 / 1 / 1,2,3,4,5,6 / 3 = $9
Race 6- 1-5-4
#1- Daddy’s Home- Let’s get em baby. This jail move price play is one I can’t resist. Last time out this 4yo colt lost as the favorite after chasing outside on a day where speed was king. That race also produced a next out winner in Bunyaan. With the switch to jockey Kendrick Carmouche, I am hoping that he gets aggressive and stays close to the leaders while chasing on the inside. If he does, I think trainer Gary Gullo will improve on his 25% winners first off the claim.
#5- Pretentious- This horse is a top contender on back class alone. This 6yo vet will get the mile master to ride him after being away from the track due to having the ultimate equipment change (sorry buddy). The lack of early speed is concerning but Bill Mott has great numbers dropping horses off long layoffs.
#4- Special Story- He is probably the one to beat after chasing wide on a gold rail day and failing as the favorite last time out. He might show a little more early speed on the stretch out but I often try to stay away from Diodoro horses when he drops them in class.
Race 7- 1
#1- Blewitt – Hard to see any scenario where he doesn’t win at 1/5
Race 8- 2-6-1
#2- Lasting Legacy – I am not sure what happened last time out when running in Mahoning Valley but that track can be a bit tricky and weird things usually happen down south. I will give this colt one more chance to get back on the right track. Prior to that poor effort he looked like a future superstar winning by a combined 8 lengths.
#6- Gift Box- He has been a horse that I have enjoyed beating and will look to do so again at a short price. You have to start wondering if he might be better on turf and wet tracks. Likely to hit the board but can’t endorse at a short price.
#1- Flash Trading- This former jail move winner owes us nothing after paying almost $13 two back. He is a closer that will need some pace to run into and I am not sure he will get it today but a hard knocking horse that always gives his all and usually outruns his odds.
Race 9- 3-5-4
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