Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, February 11, 2018
There’s eight races at Aqueduct on this Sunday afternoon, with a first post time of 12:50 PM EST. Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
I am expecting a muddy course and have handicapped for a muddy course. Make sure to check back with me on changes based on the track condition. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 1,2,3 / 7 / 6 / 3 / 2,7 = $3 (Will play 10x)
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,2,3,4 / 2,3,4,7 / 5,6 / 1,3,4 / 2,7 = $96
Race 1- 2-3-1
Since this is as wide open as a 5 horse race as you will find, I figured I would give a quick analysis of each horse:
#1- Three Goals- He seemed to wake up last time out and was nicked at the end. It was his first time stretching out and his first race on an off track; something he is likely to get again today. It is worth noting that the track looked to be favoring the inside so he might be a little “dressed up”. Still must consider as someone who might walk on the lead with an aggressive rider. Very dangerous.
#2- Hokulea- His race two back puts him in the winner’s circle. It is hard to say if that performance tells us that he wants to cut back in distance or if he loves the slop. Tread carefully.
#3- Speke- He will likely be your odds-on favorite come post time but he is hard to endorse at a short price. I am never a fan of the late starting Pletcher horses and this one did little running first time out. He was on the wrong part of the favoring track last time out but he will have to show more. He is bred to love the slop having Pioneer of the Nile and AP Indy in the bloodlines.
#4- Danny California- Of all the horses he has probably faced the toughest company but has been hurt by his lack of early speed. Unless the off track kills speed, he will likely be at another disadvantage and is a play against for me.
#5- Carmine’s Honor- He showed some early foot last time but quickly faded. Similar tactics might put the 1 horse into submission and open it up for one of my top two choices.
Race 2- 4-6-3
This is as bad a race as you are going to find on a NYRA track. Here is the rundown:
Entry- This is as bad as an entry as you are going to find. If they can’t cash a check in this spot it is hard to see this pair ever cashing a check.
#2- Netti’s Legacy- How bad is this field? This horse is 6-1 with a high of a 26 Beyer figure in four races.
#3- Cayman A Bikini- She is an interesting long shot with a couple of decent angles to consider. This is a horse who usually finds herself on the lead early and quits. There is not a lot of speed on paper and should at least make things interesting for the first half mile. She exits a race with a few next out winners and has had a couple of excuses in each of her races. Hope to hold on at a price underneath.
#4- Straw Hat- The second choice in the ML earned an 18 Beyer figure. And somehow I am making her my top choice. Geez. The switch to Paco Lopez is a huge jockey upgrade and with the addition of blinkers you can expect to be on or close to the lead. In a field like this, that might be enough. She finished 4th last race with two next out winners coming out of the race.
#5- Hot Possebility- Has a high of 15 Beyer Speed figure. And yet she has a chance to double her lifetime earnings of $359
#6- Viradia- She will most likely be 1/9 in the gate and a single on 95% of all tickets. I absolutely hate Linda Rice horses when she drops them in class. This horse has not shown the ability to show early speed so she is a very vulnerable favorite; especially if the track is speed biased. By far the horse to beat but if you run this race 100 times, I would be confident she would lose at least 40 of them. Likely winner but if we beat her we can really get paid.
Race 3- 6-5-1
#6- Forres Lily- I really like this horse and think she has a legit shot to upset the likely heavy favorite. Last time out she set the pace, in the slop and lost by a couple of lengths off a long layoff. That was against better competition that what she will see today. She gets a huge upgrade in jockey and is a horse who can be on or just off the early pace. As long as we get a sloppy track, I will take every bit of her 7-2 ML as evident by her Fast track record of 0 for 11 while her off track record is 4 for 4 in the money including her lone win.
#5- the Cake is a Lie- The likely favorite had a decent race last time out which was the first against winners. Paco was not aggressive last time out and if he uses similar tactics, it will put this horse at a disadvantage. If he lays close to the 6 and 1 horse, he could be in the perfect spot.
#1- Impazible Woman- She will be facing winners for the first time but sometimes horses just click after their first win. It will be interesting if Arroyo sends from the rail or stalks.
Race 4- 3-4-1
#3- True Timber- I actually think he will go off the favorite and rightfully so. He seems like a horse that will like the cutback and appreciate sprinting. He was chasing on the derby trail for some time and that might have hurt him long term. Two races back he ran a great race sprinting against Lasting Legacy who was recently a scratch here at Aqueduct. That horse looks like a star and True Timber ran with him throughout. He is a possible single and my only concern is that McLaughlin may be using this as a prep race for a route race later on. Hopefully Kiran realizes that this horse has a career sprinting.
#4- Gorgeous Charli- This former 12.5 Maiden Claimer has hit the super in 9 of his last 10 races including four wins. The multiple layoff lines is a bit concerning and all four of his career wins have come when he has an easy lead and walked around the track. I doubt he will be able to do the same here.
#1- Pop the Hood- Three of his four career wins have come off of long layoffs. He hasn’t run since August. Watch out!
Pick 4 Ticket – 2,7 / 1,5,6 / ALL / 2,5 = $30
Race 5- 2-7
#2- Jump For Joy- This is a two horse race and I will side with the one that should show more early speed.
#7- Our Whim- She loves the off track as evident by her 4 for 4 ITM finishes including her lone win. She is 0 for 8 on a fast track.
#6- Susans Funnybone- Who in the world is going for the lead in this race? Seriously has anyone even shown the ability to want to not have dirt kicked in their face? I will side with the horse that has had two rough starts at the gate and hope he breaks clean. If he does, he should win. It’s a big if for a horse who has lost both times at short prices.
#1- Wheresthebarber- I am a sucker for a son of Bustin Stones (miss you Bustin It). They are bred to be fast and want the lead. Rocco has the rail and has to send early. In this field if he has any horse he might find a walk around the park.
#5- Scottish Devil- Adds the hood for 2nd time out. The drop in class and the experience should help.
Race 7- 5-2-1
Every time they run the Rego Park, I can’t help but think of “Doris from Rego Park” who was a legendary caller on the WFAN radio network. Here is the breakdown of the 100k stakes race.
#1- Battle Station- His best two races were when he was sprinting. If you toss the route races, this might be the horse to beat.
#2- New York Hero- It is very interesting that Linda Rice is cutting this horse back. He might be a decent closing sprinter but you will need to look at the earlier races to see if you can close. If you can, he will be there as a main competitor. If the track is kind to speed, he might be a nice chalk to throw out.
#3- Stoney Bennett- He has gone off the favorite in all four of his lifetime races with only one win to show for it. They are removing the hood and I would expect this horse to sit right off the leaders. Been training good for this one.
#4- Morning Breez- He is the likely pace setter and cutting back in distance. Not likely to win but should include underneath. If the track is kind to speed, he might be the top pick.
#5- Analyze your Luck- Here is my crazy play of the day at 15-1 ML odds. Bear with me a bit for this one. You are going to give me 15-1 on a Pletcher horse in a 5-horse race? His lone win was in the mud; albeit a glacier-like win. But Pletcher has given him a lot of time off and has been training him down south. If you have noticed, the horses that run for Pletcher at Aqueduct have been the ones he has trained down South and then brought up to New York. Why take a NY-bred to train down south? I am not sure if he is good enough but I think he could be live at a big price and worth a win bet at 15-1 and wheeling underneath in tris. Let’s get em.
Race 8- 5-2-3
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