Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 3, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
Those that played along last week should still have a few bucks left after doing some holiday shopping. Let’s keep the hot streak going. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 7 / 3,4,8 / 2,3,4,6 / 11 / 1,2,3,4,5 = $30
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,2,7 /3,4,5,8 / 2,3,4,6 / 4,11 / 1,2,3,4,5 = $240
Race 1- 7-1-2
#7- Professor Snap- This is the type of horse that I usually make a ton of money betting against. I hate Linda Rice droppers and this horse can get caught up in a speed duel with the rail horse. Still, I have no idea who can beat this horse. It pains me but I have to take him as a top pick. I hope Ortiz lets the rail horse go for the lead and just sit right off him with the great post. A great race to either single or hit the all button.
#1- Delta Outlaw- If Ortiz allows this horse to set the pace then he should hold on for a top three placing. If they heat up in a speed duel, he can finish last. I gamble on the former.
#2- Guick- I mean who else do you want from this bunch? He won two back and was up against a favorable track last time out.
Race 2- 4-8-2
#4- Coffee Crush – I’ll take a stab at this 2nd time starter for trainer James Toner. This daughter of Megdalia D’Oro is bred to love the green and had an adventurous first try. That race he got steadied and still had a decent turn of foot to close within 2 lengths of the winner including next out winner Data Dependent. With a cleaner trip she can score a minor upset. The time off does not concern me since the work tab has been consistent. Let’s get her home at a price.
#8- Brattala- She is by far the horse to beat for the high profile connections. She has failed three straight times as the favorite including last time out in a 100k stake race…..so why can’t we find a fourth time?
#2- No Deal- Her lone try was a decent one as she just missed by a neck after two attempts on the dirt. She should show some early foot but will have to take a big step forward to beat the morning line favorite.
#3- Sweet Sting- She is an interesting first time starter at a price with the mile master aboard. She has plenty of turf winners in the family and might be able to fire first time out despite Jerkins not being strong with this angle.
Race 3- 2-4-3
#1- Our Hope Diamond- This is a small but interesting Maiden field so I will have a few tidbits about each runner. This rail horse is bred to be a winner as evident by the dam having 8 of her 9 runners find the winner’s circle. Still will be a big feat winning first out from the rail against this competitive bunch.
#2- Lezendary- Had a nice showing her first two times out despite some early trouble. She is the logical horse to win if none of the firsters are stars.
#3- Mo Wine- I am a bit concerned about this horse only going for 135k which was less than the sire fee. Still you have to pay attention when Pletcher sends out a 2yo at Aqueduct and Johnny V is on board.
#4- Dream Pauline – She is a half to Dreaming of Julia who banked just under 900k. The connections are concerning despite Martin Garcia finally winning a race at this meet after 33 attempts.
#5- Soar From Shadows – Looks like an outsider in this group. She is a half to Tommy T who just broke his maiden this week after a few big speed numbers in losing efforts.
#6- Warrior of Light- Is a half to By the Moon who banked 1.5M but Nevin usually does not have them ready first time out.
Race 4- 11-4-3
#11- Catapult Jack- These are not a good bunch at all so this is more of a pace play for me. He should be able to sit a nice spot just off of the #4 horse and horses have been winning from right off the pace of late. Last time out at this level he finished 2nd despite some trouble at the start. 6-1 is a strong price and a possible single in a race where most players will spread.
#4- Barefoot Angel- I was tempted to make this my top pick and would have if not for the poor trainer numbers with first time lasix. He should be alone on the lead and in a race where most of these horses do not even have a 2nd gear. That is reason enough to make him a top contender. Last time out was his first race in over a year so he might have needed that as a prep race. He is the horse to beat in my opinion.
#3- Pence- This is a horse that looks like a great play against as a favorite. Most players will play him off his turf numbers but looks like he has no dirt form. Linda Rice dropping horses is a great time to play against short priced horses as they rarely win. He can win here but I will never place a win bet with these types.
Race 5- 6-5-1-2
#6- Son Of Mine- This race has me completely confused as many of these horses are sending mixed messages. This horse ran on November 3rd and ran an impressive 3rd place despite breaking extremely poorly. Rice attempted to bring him back only 6 days later but was a vet scratch. So Rice decides to bring him up in class despite not having a workout since the vet scratch? Very peculiar. It is possible that she is moving him up because they can’t find another race for him. Or is it that she likes what she sees which was similar to the reason for wanting to bring him back so soon? If the price is right, I’ll gamble on the latter.
#5- Borsa Vento- Going first off the claim for Rudy which is usually a good thing. The horse started his career routing so the stretch out is interesting. Worth a look especially with Irad in the irons.
#1- Northern Grey- He is 3-1 today vs. my top pick who is 4-1ML. The last time they met my top pick was 4-1 and this horse was 13-1. How can I take this horse at a quarter of the price he was last time? Still he is projected to send from the rail and may not have a lot of company that goes with him.
#2- Bartleby- Gets the mile master and has dirt races that would make him competitive here.
Conservative Pick 4 – 1,6,7 / ALL / 2,3,7 / 7 = $45
Aggressive Pick 4- 1,2,3,6,7 / 4,5,7,8,9 / 2,3,7 / 2,7,11,12 = $150
Race 6- 6-7-1
#6- Pocket Change – In John we trust. First time out this horse went wire to wire in what appears to be a very live races as three of the other runners have come back to win next time out. It is interesting that he is taking this horse to the turf now, but it must be a for a sound reason. He is giving a ton of experience away to the other starters but I am looking for a big race at a nice price.
#7- Runaway Posse- He rarely runs a bad race and almost a sure thing to cash a check here. He is the horse to beat and I will be shocked if he goes off at a longer price than Yummy Bear despite finishing just behind him last time out.
#1- Yummy Bear- He is steadily improving each time out and a threat to win here. But not at his morning line odds and the rail position.
Race 7- 8-7-4
By far the hardest race of the day. I will go into this race further on twitter where I can make an reason for each horse to win.
Race 8- 7-3-2
#7- Achnaha- In a bad betting race where it appears only three horses can win, I will side with the horse with the longest price. She is getting big time class relief and should be able to sit a nice stalking position from the outside. If no one walks on the lead, it’s her race to lose.
#3- Taralena- The horse that they may walk on the lead is this horse who has already beaten a few of these already. It’s simple, if they let her set fractions of 25 second quarters (the norm on this circuit) she will walk to victory.
#2- In the Lee- I know she ran a nice 4th against Rymska last time out but I do not get the favoritism on this horse. The speed figures are not there and needs to improve to run with my top two picks. There is reason for her to take a step forward but she is far from a single.
Race 9- 7 (Level 2 jail move)-2-12-10
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