Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 17, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
Despite hitting 3 top choice winners last week it kind of felt like a bit of a “let down” after the month we have had. Good chance I will be tweeting live from Aqueduct so feel free to say hi. Let’s get back on track. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 3,5,6 / 6 / 5 / 4,8 / 2,3,4,5 = $6
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 3,5,6 / 2,3,5,6,7 / 5 / 4,5,8 / 2,3,4,5 = $90
Race 1- 6-3-5
#6- Labeq – I do not have a strong opinion in this interesting but short field. I landed on the “mile master” who figures to improve 2nd time out.
#3- Factor This- This horse caught my eye out of all of the turf to dirt runners. One of the best angles I have found in the past is when a horse has a troubled trip on a surface first time out and then comes back to that surface after a few tries on a different surface. This son of The Factor took some money first time out but got slammed out of the gate and lost all chance. There were a couple of next time out winners in that race so maybe getting back to the dirt is what will wake him up at a price.
#5- St. Augustine- He has the look of a wise guy pick due to who he ran up against in his first three attempts but he got soundly beaten in those races and will most likely be over bet. Must include in the multi-race wagers but tough to endorse at what will be a short price.
Race 2- 6-5-7
#6- Triangulate – Chad Brown seems to hold a strong hand in this leg of the p5. A return to his last race where he got hit at the gate would put him in the winner’s circle. No world beaters here.
#5- Accumulator- Pletcher has strong numbers going MSW to MCL and this horse does not need to improve much to be a top contender. He is another who was slow out of the gate and exits a race that had a couple of next out winners.
#7- Catch Twenty Two- A lot of red flags here so buyer beware. A late starting Chad Brown firster is not one you want to endorse. This is especially true when they are willing to lose the horse for 50k after spending 225k at sale. He is a half to Tommy Macho.
Race 3- 5-1-3
#5- Storm Prophet- This looks to be a strong single in my opinion. The two inside horses should battle each other into submission and allowing this closer to pick up the pieces. His last two races have been strong and a repeat of either one makes him a winner.
#1- Foreset- Of the two speed types, I will favor the rail horse who is taking a nice jump up in class off the impressive win at the 25k level. He was claimed by Toscano who does great work 1st time out but unless the horse to his outside concedes the lead, I don’t see him holding on late.
#3- Zabaione- Brimstone looks like a terrible play at 2-1. He will not have an easy lead, gets Michael Luzzi and will be a short price. I much rather a solid closer who is more likely to lug in for a 3rd place finish.
Race 4- 8-4-5
#8- Lune Lake- A very similar profile to that of my second choice in the first race. Can improve 2nd time out on the dirt.
#4- Go Kelly Go- Looks to be the logical horse and single on many tickets after losing to next out winner My Roxy Girl last time out. Figures to win here but running out of chances.
#5- Broadway Girl- Interesting firster for a barn that hits at 30% winners at the MCL rankings and bred to 5 winners.
Race 5- 3-5-4
#3- War Eagle’s Return – This pick will be a bit of a reach but he is one day short of a jail move and is getting a considerable trainer upgrade. He will need a couple of horses to set up his big closing kick but in these short fields, he may not be as far back as usual. #5 Morning Buzz is also one day short of the jail move but not at as a desirable a price but should sit the better trip as the favorite.
#4- Too Fast to Pass- He is most likely your controlling speed and Gullo does a nice job going 2nd off the claim but the drop in class is concerning.
Conservative Pick 4- 8 (Only if fast track) / 4,8 / 2,4 / All = $18
Aggressive Pick 4- 8 (only if fast track) / 2,3,4,5,8 / 2,4 / ALL = $45
Race 6- 8-4-7-1
#8- Big Zip- We scored nicely last time out with this horse in this same condition. Let’s go back to the well one more time. He should be sitting the perfect trip just off the leaders and on the outside. No reason why he can’t go back to back. The only caution here is if the track comes up less than fast. If the track is good or worse, he becomes a play against.
#4- Marriage Fever- The horrendous race and the huge drop in class are big time red flags. But he has the back class to make some noise and the 6-1 price is nice.
#7- Nominal Dollars- He has the speed numbers to be a top contender but often leaves himself too much work to do with his big closing kick.
#1- Glowing Ember- If you are looking for a great price, here is your horse. He might send from the rail and in a race with not much speed on paper, that alone makes him a contender at a huge price.
Race 7- 8-4-2
#8- For Pops- He may not be fast enough to beat these but he looks like the lone speed in this race. Looks for 4th in a row.
#4- Terry O Geri- He is the fastest of the field but also has the look of a horse who likes to cash minor checks. And in a race that lacks a lot of speed, it might be hard for him to make a winning closing move.
#2- Best Surprise- Might need one off the long layoff.
Race 8- 4-2-5
#4- Belleville Spring- One of my favorite handicapping angles is the impressive maiden in a stakes race. This 8-1ML shot fits that profile perfectly. He had a rough start first time out so with a cleaner break can make some noise and have a slight chance to pull out the upset.
#2- Stoney Bennett- He is by far the class of the field but I feel is a tad overbet after he had a bit of hang in him last time out.
#5- Five Star Bunt- Jail Move for Linda Rice so expect a big improvement out of this horse. He will need it to contend.
Race 9- 8-6-3
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