Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 10, 2017
A great day of racing action at Aqueduct is on tap. As per usual, there’s nine races, with a first post time of 12:20 PM EST, and Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
We have had a fun past few weeks. Let’s keep the hot streak going. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
ALL single Pick 5 Ticket- 1-3-4-4-4
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 1 – 2,3,8 – 4 – 4 – ALL = $7.50
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- ALL – 2,3,8 – 1,4 – 4 – ALL = $52.50
Race 1- 1
#1- Combat Controller – Wow this is a bad field to start off the day. Here are a few tidbits for each horse. My top pick just looks like the fastest of the bunch and has the least amount of red flags in this lot. Either single and move on or hit the all button.
#2- Hellical Spring – Horse has hit the trifecta in half of his 22 career races. Maybe a decent key bet for third.
#3- The Orphan Miracle- A stone cold closer that might be pace compromised with the lack of speed on paper. Has yet to show he wants to go this far.
#4- Toohottoevenspeak- The horse most likely to upset my top pick but also does not like to win races. 14 out of 27 races resulted in 2nd or 3rd place finishes. Oh yeah……Luzzi is the jock.
#5- Thirst for Victory- Has not been the same horse since going from Todd Pletcher to Bruce Brown’s barn. Shocker. His best races seem to have come at Parx.
Race 2- 3-8-2
#3- Andesine – Since this race has already been ruled off the turf, this seems to be a pretty safe top pick and possible single. She has yet to win a race on a fast track or this distance which are major concerns but should be the fastest horse in the race with a jockey that towers over the majority of the field.
#8- Winner’s Dream- She has a few decent efforts on a fast track and has enough tactical speed to get first jump on my top pick. Don’t ignore.
#2- Christmas Sky- The longer priced MTO is a play against for me. Last time out he won by 4 lengths against a weak group that includes Free Kitty who came back to run a clunker earlier in the week.
Race 3- 4-1-6
#4- Holland Park- This expensive son of Tapit should outclass this small and cheap field that appears to lack any stars. He is a half to Long River who earned 750k
#1- Sharpe and Ready- Will have the tough task of breaking from the rail on his maiden voyage. It is interesting to note that he went for 6x his sire fee and has a nice consistent workout pattern. Might make some noise.
Race 4- 4-2-6
#4- Backyard Heaven- Looks like another possible single after posting a 92 Beyer first time out against next our winner Copper Town. It is a little concerning that he was a late starting 3yo who has also taken some time off since his first race. A repeat of his last will make him tough.
Race 5- 4-5-2
#4- Mydadfloyd- I feel like I need to give you guys a bit of a price to make this P5 worth playing. This is more of a play against the other top ML choice than an endorsement for this horse.
#5- Lost Iron- This ML favorite is a terrible play as a win bet. We have made a lot of money together betting against Linda Rice horses on the drop and this one is dropping after an over year layoff.
#2- City Traveler- He is another terrible play as a win bet being privately purchased away from the Linda Rice barn. I am also not sure this horse wants to be on this surface. Look for a price here and hope for the best.
Pick 4 Conservative – 6,7 – 1,7 -6 – 6,10,11,12 = $8
Pick 4 Aggressive – 3,6,7 – 1,2,3,7 – 3.6 – 3,6,7,10,11,12 = $72
Race 6- 7-6-3
#7- Hammerin Aamer- This horse seems to be getter better with each effort and another slight improvement will make this horse tough to beat. I also how this is a horse that does not need the lead to win and that flexibility may come into play with the rail speed. He has yet to run a bad race routing and another step forward will make his 4-1 ML odds look like a gift. I hope he sits right off the 1 and pounces.
#6- Carlino- The Mile Master looks like the one to beat after his last couple of performances where he beat a decent bunch with a 97 beyer and then just got nicked by next out winner Harlan’s Punch. It is concerning that the trainer is only 1 for 39 off of this layoff and has not had a good meet at all.
#3- Broken Engagement- The other half of the uncoupled Rudy entry is the ML favorite off of his easy win against much easier last time out. He does have a nice angle which I love to look for……state breds running against open company for the first time. It screams confidence.
Race 7- 7-1-2
#7- Rock Ave. Road – Okay, this will be my reach for the day in a race that will run on the dirt. Her dirt form, at first look is horrendous with her 0 for 3 record. But look closer at those races and this is what you will see
- May 30 2016- First race was meant for turf and rained out. Ran in the slop against Highway Star and set the pace. Had no shot.
- August 1, 2016- Another race that was run in the slop after scheduled for the turf. She lost the race at the gate with a terrible start. Had no shot.
- November 25th, 2016- They actually tried her out on the dirt and finished 5th of 9 horses. In that race she lost to multiple next out winners and stake winners.
I am willing to give her one more shot since the price will be right.
#1- Nothingbutasmile- Will be a heavy favorite despite the horse being meant for turf. Her lone try on the dirt was only a 2 length lose but looked more of a plodder in that race. I will include in the Pick 4 but will not single unlike most.
#2- Arietta- The lone MTO looks slow but will give a look due to being the lone dirt horse and coming out of a barn that has been winning everything.
Race 8- 6-3
#6- Divine Miss Grey – I will side with the longer of the two prices in what appears to be a two-horse race. Her lone bad race in her last 6 efforts was against American Gal who is considered one of the top 3yo fillies in the country. Look for #3 Verdant Pastures to set the pace and see if she can hold off the classier of the two fillies.
Race 9- 6-10-3
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