Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, April 23, 2017
After several months of racing in Queens, we’ve finally reached closing day at Aqueduct. To help you out with the last Aqueduct card until next fall, we have FREE picks & analysis from Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh).
Be sure to give Steve a follow on twitter; he’ll be providing his thoughts on the NYRA racing every weekend here on Danonymous.
Take it away, Steven!
Today marks the end of the Aqueduct meet. I will do my best to repeat last week’s success, which including the Pick 5 hit, with a few more wining picks. Let’s Get Em!
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info at NYRA. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Conservative Pick 5 Play – 1,4 / 4,7 / 4 / 4 / 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 = $14
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 1,4,5 / 3,4,7 / 1,2,4 / 1,4,7 / 4,6, 7 = $121
Race 1- 1-4-5
#1- Motown Sound – Although he is not the most talented horse in the race I think he will have things his own way in regards to the pace scenario. He is the only horse in the field who likes to even be close to the lead at first call and if jockey Manny Franco can get aggressive he should find himself alone on the lead and walk into the winners circle. Some may be worried about the perceived drop in class but in reality this is similar company now that he is in open company and out of the NW3 restrictions.
#4- One Sided- He is the horse to beat based on class but I think he will be paced compromised. He does have some early speed in his arsenal and if he were to use it I think he will be tough to beat. But he has not looked the same since leaving the Pletcher barn. Top two choices should get you past the first leg in the multis
#5- Big Discovery – If my top two picks choose to fight each other on the front end (which I find highly unlikely) then this is the horse most likely to benefit with his big closing kick. It is also not a positive sign that he was a vet scratch on April 12th and has not had a work since but these things can happen in the Jacobson barn.
Race #2- 4-7-3
#4- Smokey Brown- I am hoping this will be the first “Boom” of the day. On the surface it is hard to endorse a 2 for 33 lifetime horse but he is the most accomplish turf horse in the race. He will need a fair track (which is a big if) and he will need some pace to run into (another big if) but he is the value play at 6-1.
#7- Dixie Runner – He is your most likely winner but will be 4-5 come post time. He lone turf face was a stake race against much better. He is the likely pace setter and that alone makes him dangerous to go along with the strong Jockey/trainer connections. He would not surprise but do you really want to single or take a short price on a horse who has never won on this surface and the connections have only chosen to race on turf once in his 11 lifetime races?
#3- Black Tide- He should be sitting the perfect trip right off of Dixie Runner. If the favorite isn’t “Whistling Dixie” then he will get first jump on my top pick.
Race 3- 4-1-2
#4- Dolphus- This race looks more like a Grade 2 than an Optional Allowance race. I landed on this as my top pick based on a pace scenario. He should be alone on the lead and it seems like Rajiv and Jenkins have been winning everything of late.
#1- Economic Model- He is the class of the field having running with the best 7F-8F horses in the country. He will be flying from off the pace. The only question is will he be able to close into what appears will be slow fractions.
#2- Splashtastic – If you are a multi-race bettor who likes having deep tickets then I would not overlook this horse. Just a few facts to point out:
- He will be 8x the price as my top pick come post time despite going off at a cheaper price last time out when they faced one another
- He is projected to be closer early on to Dolphus than the ML favorite and can get first jump on him
- The jockey is “The Mile Master”
- Owns a win over this course in his only attempt and has not been out of the exacta at this distance.
Race 4- 4-1-7
#4- Fifty Five- She is by far the one to beat after beating the highly touted La Coronel last time out in the G3 Florida Oaks. A repeat of that effort will make this Chad Brown filly almost unbeatable.
#1- Dynatail – She comes out of the same race as Fifty Five and should be your pace setter. The 4th place finish actually looks worse on paper as she ran a great race chasing the pace from the inside and then went wide turning for home. If they let her walk on the lead she can beat this tough group.
#7- Team of Teams- She won first time out for trainer Jerkens in her introduction to North American Racing. She did so on the front end but I do not think she is as fast as my 2nd pick. She actually went off as the favorite a few races ago against Spain Burg who was a sleeper pick in the 2yo Turf Fillies Breeders Cup Race. This filly has talent and it would not be a surprise to see her make some noise at a modest price.
Race 5- 4-6-7
#4- Flatterfly – This will be my “Bob Barker pick” (The price is right). This 3yo daughter of Flatter has had legitimate excuses in all 4 of her career races and I would love to be the one that catches a price on her when everything breaks right. I am willing to throw out her last which was in the mud. Despite that, she was able to close nicely despite the crawl upfront. The two races prior she was taken out of the race from the start. In her maiden race she was once again on an off track where speed was king that day. If she breaks cleanly she can upset here.
#6- No Lunks – She can improve 2nd time out and first off the private purchase for James Lawrence. Kendrick Carmouche does very well with these young type of horses and look for him to try to get this horse engaged in the race early.
#7- Desert Affair – She should be forwardly placed and likely to be closer to 5/2 than her 7/2 ML odds. She is getting closer and closer to the winner’s circle after each race but do you really want to endorse a horse who has failed the first 7 times out? She should appreciate the cutback and those that love that angle I can’t blame you for jumping on the bandwagon with the horse with the fastest speed figures.
Conservative Pick 4 – 2,4,6,7 / 8 / 7 / All = $16
Aggressive Pick 4 – 2,4,6,7,9 / 8,9 / 6,7 / ALL = $80
Race 6- 2-7-6
#2- Cats Halo – I absolutely love this race. Why? I hate the favorites. I am confident that this race will pay. I landed on this daughter of Freud which should be around 10-1 come post time. I believe his form is extremely dirtied up and 2 of her 3 best races have come on this track. She is a 4yo running against a few 3yos (including the ML favorite) which is an angle I love. I love the cutback for this horse and hope that I can get a good ride out of Dylan Davis who is one of the most underrated jockeys on the circuit.
#7- Wink At Me- This is another huge bomb that I will be hoping has a nice run in her. Trainer Gary Gullo is hitting at a 33% clip going first off the claim and he is one of the few trainers that calls on Angel Arroyo when he has a live one in the barn. I can throw out his last two races where she was taken out at the start. She will be a huge price and a must use in the Pick 4 and underneath in the tris and supers.
#6- Quasney’s Angel – She has run the most impressive races of this bunch and will appreciate the drop in class. She is the one to beat in my opinion and should be forwardly placed with this upgrade in jockey.
Race 7- 8-9-7
#8- Khalessi Kat – This was a coin flip over the ML favorite but landed on this horse due to the success on this track. My biggest concern is the fact that she seems to need a race off the layoff in her past form. If she is ready, she wins.
#9- Alabama Bound – The likely ML favorite will be making noise early in the race but the other speed in the race might make things difficult for her. If they leave her alone, the race is over.
#7- Amazing Anne – I love this horse after helping me cash a very nice Pick 5 ticket last time out at 8-1. This will be a much tougher test for her since her only 3 career wins have been when she has been allowed to be alone on the lead and that is not a likely situation. She should be there at the finish as evident by her cashing a check in 12 of her 19 lifetime races.
Race 8- 7-6-4
#7- Gold for the King- Despite this being one of the toughest NY Stallion races of the year this will be a very strong play for me. She could conceivably be undefeated after 6 starts if not for trouble at the start of races or running against the bias track last time out. He is fast enough to run with the likes of Syndegaard and Bobby on Fleek and he should handle these with ease if he breaks clean. There are some very talented horses in this group, but this is the only star of the group.
#6- Duquense Whistle – Whenever Linda Rice moves horses up in class after a loss you need to pay attention. That is the situation with this horse who had a rough 3rd place finish to Bobby on Fleek after a horrific start. It sounds like he has been working lights out in the mornings and although I think he wants more distance he could be a major player in this field.
#4- T loves a fight- I have bet against this horse the past 3 times and I have kicked myself each time. I am still “putting up a fight” with putting her on top, but it’s clear he “loves a fight”.
Race 9- 7-5-1
#7- Citizen By Day – We close the Aqueduct meet with a maiden claimer on Turf (I love it). Those that have read my write-up on this type of race knows that under no circumstance should we take a favorite. So I landed on 1 of the 2 elder horses in the race. I question if she wants to go this far but most of her turf races look better on the replay than the past performances. If she is 5-1 or more, we will take our shot.
#5- Final Flurry- The ML favorite and 3yo. She has the fastest figures in the race but I just can’t endorse a short price on a horse that is dropping after burning money the last two times out and now leaves the Bill Mott barn. Will including the Pick 4 but not top.
#1- Sunday Gravy- This is the type of horse that I love to bet in a Maiden Claimer on turf. If she was an elder I would have made this my top pick. Her lone turf race is a race you can strike a line through as that company was 5x better than what she will face here and she never ran a lick due to a terrible start. She has the look and the name to a perfect ending to the Aqueduct meet.
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