Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Welcome to another action-packed Saturday at the Big A! It looks like we’re staying on the turf for the big ones, with only races 4 and 5 coming off. I’m going to skip race 5, but all others are listed below. Everything is updated for scratches as of 10:30am. Hopefully everyone had a safe and happy holiday, and good luck today!
6 – Cookie Crisp – last three efforts have been very impressive, even in close defeats. 3 for 4 ITM at today’s distance and picks up Maragh. Today could be the breakthrough if he can sit off the pace from the outside post.
5 – Call Me – Maybe? Outside of my terrible joke, I’m intrigued by this one off the long layoff for Pletcher. He hits at 32% in this scenario, picks up Saez and could surprise today. Price will probably be fair.
2 – Infield Is In – 4 for 6 ITM locally and working nicely leading into today.
7 – Burkey’s Babe – ran well trying to wire them in her first try at the Maiden 20K ranks last out, only to be caught late. I think she could be the lone speed in here and has a chance to get the elusive first win with Irad aboard.
4 – No Deal – should get bet to favoritism with the class drop and the recent efforts. Probably wants a stalking trip, and should get an aggressive ride with Saez aboard.
3 – Sacrifice – she’s ran three times for three different barns at three distances on two different surfaces, so maybe the second start for Reynolds provides her first glimpse at consistency? The debut at the Spa in August was good, so the return to a one-turn dirt race is a positive.
5 – Loverboy Lou – after one start, a purchase price of $2k and compared to the high-priced company in this field, he can certainly be viewed as the blue-collar participant. His debut was a solid try near the lead and comes back in two weeks. Price should be nice, just has to avoid early duel with the 6.
2 – Mihos – certainly looks the part with the $320k purchase for Jimmy Jerkins, and should come back nicely from the troubled trip in the debut. 4-5 on the morning line should stay in that range, as he appears to be the class of the field.
6 – U R Not So Bad – three tries with no luck for this Into Mischief colt, but the last effort here at the Big A was encouraging. Speedball should try to send from the bell, make them come and catch him.
Race 4 – off turf selections: 4-13-12
Race 5 – Passing due to off turf and scratches.
Race 6 – The Grade III Discovery
** my top pick was #2 Life’s A Parlay, followed by Plainsman and Roaming Union. With only Plainsman staying in the race I see this is a single in all exotics, as he’ll get a good track and appears to be loaded here.
3 – Plainsman – has been ultra-sharp for Brad Cox and appears primed for the graded stakes try today. Won over the local surface three weeks back and should sit close to the lead
Race 7 – Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship Stakes
8 – White Flag – cuts back to the preferred one-turn sprint after trying the mile out west, and the works leading in have been encouraging. Would love to see him just off the leaders into the turn, and I think there’s enough pace in here to set him up.
9 – Disco Partner – the clear favorite in here and deservedly so, coming off a so-so try in the BC Sprint. Needs to be more prominently involved earlier today, but this is a drop in competition and he has to be respected.
3 – Kitten’s Cat – ran into some trouble late in the last start at Woodbine, but ran on well for a close 6th. Picks up Saez today and sports three nice drills leading into this.
off turf selections: 1-4-6
6 – The Caretaker – toss the last with the unfortunate luck at the gate and all you have is a horse that always fires his shot. He’s 5 for 6 ITM at the Big A, 4 for ITM at today’s distance. Wants to be just off the lead and loaded at the top of the lane, and I like the set-up he could get.
4 – Tommy T – three fantastic works this month have this one primed for the return off the layoff. Another stalk and pounce type, Rosario stays aboard and will be in the mix late for sure.
2 – Fully Vested – loves the distance and should show enough early speed to get his spot on the turn. Can he carry the speed to the wire?
Race 9 – The Grade III Long Island Stakes
2 – Lady Montdore – finished very well in the Flower Bowl last out despite a 4-wide trip in on the turn, keeps Franco aboard today sits a perfect 2 for 2 at today’s distance of 1 & 3/8. I think she’ll work out a trip from the inside and relish the extra furlong.
11 – Night of England – 3 for 3 ITM lifetime at the distance making the US debut for Chad Brown. This one is more of a tote board play for me, as I think the outside post and the presence of other Chad entrants will keep him at a nice price with Jose aboard.
10 – Lady Paname – speaking of other Chad horses, here’s one coming off a nice allowance win in her first crack on US soil. Irad stays aboard and I like the progression heading into the graded stakes company.
Off-turf selections: 5-13-14
2 – Tempers Way – first-timer for Linda Rice has been working nicely towards the debut, and Jose can ideally get her out quick and avoid traffic early.
7 – Mike’s Girl – if my wife actually read these she’d think I picked this horse in her honor, at which point I would tell her that’s exactly the reason. However, she doesn’t read this so I’ll tell you instead that the horse was progressing nicely for Asmussen before the trainer switch, and I’m willing to give her another crack and toss the last.
3 – Jot – speedster for Linda Rice could be a pace casualty by the end of this, but the Shackleford bloodline and Irad staying aboard makes me like her chances here at a price. Definite inclusion in exotics.
2018-2019 Belmont / Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 11/17)
- Week 1 (10/20) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Total: 36: 9-9-4, -12.5% ROI ($72 wagered, $63 returned)