Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 18, 2017
The Aqueduct fall meet is in full swing, and they’ve got a great nine-race card on tap for Saturday. The headliner is the Artie Schiller Stakes, for grass milers. We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) with picks & analysis of the program. Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Claiming $40,000
1/2 w 1/2 w 7
1 Out of Trouble ran well against similar last out, after a significant class drop and changing barns. She draws the rail and should fire out of the inner chute if she breaks well, and position herself out front. This will be the first out for 2 Tisbury since switching to Owner/Trainer Linda Rice. Look for her coming on down the stretch and making it a close one. I like 7 Cat O Mine to press and find herself in the money.
Race 2, 1 Mile, Maiden Claiming $46,000
2 to win
At first glance, I was reluctant to play 2 Gia Michael. Although she’s bred to win, and I think she’ll get there eventually, Martin’s 0 for 16 in maiden claiming debuts. After looking through the rest of the field, I came back to her because of her contestants’ shortcomings.
Race 3, 6 Furlongs, Claiming $50,000
5 w 3
I’ll go with 5 Bolita Boyz. He took first in 40k claimer a month ago. He’s the classiest of the bunch here today; the rest may be a little ambitious stepping up from 20 and 25. The only exception is 3 A Fleet Attitude, who’s won at this level but probably won’t today. I’ll play him underneath.
Race 4, 1 Mile (Turf), Optional Claiming $80,000
1, 3 exacta box
To me, 8 Scheme seems a little short-priced based on her actual performances. She’s dropping down significantly from the Pebbles Stakes, but didn’t fare too well in the Allowance races preceding that.
I’d prefer to take a chance on either 1 Driven by Speed or 3 Folk Magic, both of whom are stepping up following a win.
Race 5, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Allowance $57,000
9 w 1
This is a robust field that could feature 12 runners. 9 Mission Command steps up in class after an impressive win in the claiming ranks. That was his first trip on the grass, and he obviously took to it. 1 D’yer Mak’er has also been impressive in the morning, and looks to improve on his two previous third place finishes.
I’ll go with 12 Canarsie Kid [AE] if he runs. He’s coming off a moderate layoff after winning in late September. His works were pretty poor until he ran a super sharp sprint Sunday morning. This guy could really shake things up this afternoon.
Race 6, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Maiden $60,000
4, 7 to win
4 Victor Lounge was a little too eager his first out, and ran out of gas midway. He’s undergone some major equipment changes (G) since September 10, and should improve this afternoon. I’m not overly concerned with the slight stretch out, but I’d prefer his odds a little longer than 4/1 in a 12 horse field. 7 Factor ran this same distance three weeks ago, where he managed to press the pace and finish a length back.
I’ll go with 16 Alkhaatam if this comes off the turf.
Race 7, 6 Furlongs, Claiming $16,000
2, 5 to win
How can you not play a horse named 2 Gambler’s Ghost? Second off a claim; second off a layoff. He’s the only speed horse in the field, and he’s a healthy 10/1. 5 Bar None has won his last two tries, and goes for the hat trick this afternoon with a hot trainer/jockey combo. 7 Will Did It won pulling away across 7 Furlongs in early October, and this will be his first out since the claim. He hasn’t been training too well, but could round out the trifecta.
Race 8, 1 Mile (Turf), Artie Schiller Stakes $150,000
3 to win
3 w 5/9 w 11
5 Blacktype is the proven class here, but it looks like he prefers a little longer distance. I’ll go with 3 Hollywood Hideaway. He’s has run well against more competitive fields, but the pace setup might be more important for him today. 9 Delta Prince spins a similar yarn, but at far shorter odds. Watch for 11 Tizzarunner to sneak into the money.
Race 9, 6 Furlongs, Maiden $55,000
4 w 10/11
2/4 w 10/11
13 Miss Hot Stones looks like the best bet on paper, and offers accordingly short odds (5/2 morning line). 2 Forever Dreams also looks good, especially next to the 6/1 odds. Of the contestants who have run before, I’m leaning towards 4 Reata’s Reward. She’s switched bars and taken a couple of months off, and her works have been impressive. I’ll put her on top with a few first-timers (10 Ramblin’ Ma’am and 11 Sundance Joy) underneath.