Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Aqueduct’s in full swing! They’ve got a 9-race card today, with the opener going off at 12:20 PM EDT.
We’re happy to have Mike Collins (@cottycollins21) providing picks & analysis of all the action. He handicapped Saratoga Wednesdays on the site earlier in the year, and he’ll now be sharing his thoughts on Aqueduct on Saturdays.
Good luck to everyone playing along! Take it away, Mike!
Welcome back to The Big A. We are off the turf again today, and these selections are updated for scratches. I am skipping races 2 and 8, as I don’t have any strong opinions with those two off the turf. We’re at 2% ROI for the winter meet, so let’s get a few home and stay in the black! Good luck today everyone!
3 – Old Upstart – willing to toss last in the slop at Belmont, loves the Big A and the 11/18 bullet is appealing
5 – Sparty Boy – Rudy and Irad hitting at a 28% clip locally, with the trainer winning 30% of first-time claims.
2 – Becker’s Galaxy – will try to take them gate to wire and might not have company up top. Will have to be caught late.
Race 2 – skipping due to scratches.
3 – Satisfy – I like the last two efforts, seems like the horse is trending upwards. Could have a rabbit to chase inside (#1) and I like her just slightly more than…
4 – Sunset Ridge – very impressive after stumbling in last start, should lock up with the 3 at top of lane for a duel. Watch out.
1 – Posse Needed – has had some success recently and keeps Irad here. Can she pop the gate and make them catch her? Might be her only chance so I expect her to be on the lead today.
5 – Kadens Courage – last two efforts were very encouraging, and the early speed should help him today. Breakthrough race in wire to wire fashion.
9 – Le General – will likely go with the 5 early, so hopefully a pace duel doesn’t ruin both their chances. Could see this exacta trot right around the oval though.
4 – Trip Ups – Parx shipper ran a tough second in the debut and sports a nice 4F work leading into the second try.
8 – Hail – Had two brutal starts at Saratoga, but both were longer and one of them came on turf. Bill Mott kept him in same company last out when cutting the distance to 7F and the result was a game second coming just off the pace. He’s the outside slot after scratches, should get a comfortable trip.
2 – Electric Forest – hasn’t been seen since May, a dull effort at Churchill. Chad Brown is 26% off these layoffs and the works have been consistent. Seems like a good spot for him considering the connections.
1 – Barrier Island – second off the layoff here for Shug, and the price should be very nice.
6 – Back of the Watch – Irad stays aboard after dueling and getting nabbed at the wire. Claimed by Englehart and runs back for first time since. Nice work on 11/6 as well.
5 – Sandlot Star – three nice works since the second start and drops into MCL company for first time.
7 – Latin Love Bug – always runs and has hit board in last four starts. 0-4 locally keeps him off the win end for me, but he’ll be around late.
10 – Uncle Mojo – can excuse the G1 try two back as this is likely the right level for him. Coming off the layoff today for Pletcher (19% 61-180 days) and will be firing from the bell.
5 – Clyde’s Image – the likely pacesetter has a shot with the scratches, and he’s 1 for 1 locally already.
8 – Lunaire – will likely be off the pace flying late for a crack at the top spot. With all the scratches I think the pace scenario won’t be as beneficial, but still respect.
Race 8 – skipping due to scratches.
6 – No Hitter – second start under Maker for this one, gets Jose today and will hope to finally break without incident.
9 – Unsullied – two nice works since the last effort, has the best figures in the field and should sit just off pace
2 – Holycowits Patrick – 6th career start today and nothing to note as of yet. Will, however, cut back to 6 panels and keeps Luzzi for the fourth straight time. The 11/12 drill is promising. Should get a price.
2018-2019 Belmont / Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 11/10)
- Week 1 (10/20) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Total: 29: 8-8-3, 2.2% ROI ($58 wagered, $59.30 returned)