Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 11, 2017
The Aqueduct fall meet is in full swing, and they’ve got a great nine-race card on tap for Saturday. Lots of big fields are on the docket, including a good-sized group in the Red Smith Handicap, which goes as the 8th race. We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) with picks & analysis of the program. Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1, 6 Furlongs, Claiming $27,000
7 w 1
Race 2, 1 Mile (Turf), Claiming $40,000
2 to win
2 w 3 w 6
10 Rappel is a heavy favorite at 5/2 and has the highest speed figure last out, but might not be up for stretching out this afternoon. Also, he’s a closer that may need to stay out wide across two turns. I’ll look elsewhere for value.
2 Ode to the Hunt takes a big drop in class (last out was a $75,000 1X Allowance) and cuts back a sixteenth. He’s lost his last two races by a combined 2 ¼ lengths, and could be ready to roll off the two month layoff.
I like 6 Mr. Dougie Fresh because he’s the only speed here. He got out front last out, but couldn’t sustain his own pace. I think he’ll get out front and drift back again, but stay in the money.
Race 3, 6 Furlongs, Optional Claiming $40,000
9 w 7 w 2
9 Heavy Meddle ran a bullet in his last work last week, and looks to cruise out to an easy win this afternoon. I like him a lot today. 7 Nobody Move likes to press and should easily roll with the pace, but won’t be able to take the lead before the wire. 2 Runaway Lute wants to contend, but will most likely find himself a few back to show.
Race 4, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Maiden $55,000
1 – 4 to win
1 – 4 exacta box
Interestingly, the first four runners are all first-time starters. They all have fairly long morning line odds, too. I’ll bet these blindly – one of them will get on the rail and run with it.
Race 5, 1 Mile (Turf), Allowance $57,000
1/4 w 1/4 w 6
1 Clutch Cargo has a couple of friendly angles in his favor – Philip Serpe is on a hot streak, and hitting at a 25% clip adding blinkers. With the rail, if he stays at 4/1 he’s a pretty safe play.
If you want to get a little more aggressive, take a look at 4 Ides of Arch – he won at the same class and distance in August. He’s taken two months off and works are mediocre, but 6/1 is pretty fair.
6 River Knight, on the other hand, is much more of a gamble – he’s a speed horse breaking in the middle of the pack, and he’s taking a big step up in class after finishing second (last Saturday). I don’t know if I trust him to win, but he could spice up the trifecta.
Race 6, 7 Furlongs, Maiden $60,000
1, 3 to win
Wow. Race 6 kicks off the late Pick 4 and all of these races feature very deep, and very wide open, fields of 9, 12, 12, and 14. There’s gonna be a lot of dough up in the air when this round’s over…
If you’re playing horizontals here, you might need to play All. 1 Blinded Vision got off to a good start his only out but eventually ran out of gas. I’m hoping his lungs have expanded in the past two months. In the even they have not, keep an eye out for 3 Point to Remember. This little rascal’s been breakin’ down the barns tryin’ to get on the track. He leaves a vapor trail in his wake after his morning works. He’s so hot right now. Hansel.
At 15/1, a win on 6 Capo Dei Capi could finance a meal at Buca di Beppo. Is that place still in business? Capo’s from a good bloodline (dam has 7 winners from 8 starters, including 3 stake winners), but unfortunately Mott doesn’t play to aggressively on their first out. But when they win they win, right? I’d prefer to round out my tri with this guy.
Race 7, 1 1/16 (Turf), Optional Claiming $62,500
I like 6 Atlantic Sun, for various reasons. 2 Souper Tapit could pay off handsomely…if he likes the grass. I’m not so sure he does, and very sure I don’t like the risk.
8 Tusk jumps up in class, after dropping down to 25 large (or small, by comparison). Have you ever looked up Tusk the Dog on Instagram? It’s wildly entertaining.
From a pure numbers standpoint, 5 Slim Shadey has the edge here. 1 For Greater Glory offers a hefty longshot payout if the pace sets up accordingly.
Race 8, 1 3/8 Mile (Turf), Red Smith Handicap (Grade 3)
2 Money Multiplier battled hard last out, and his 10 back 8th place is rather deceptive. Despite that, he’s still your 5/2 morning line favorite. I wouldn’t rule out 5 Oscar Nominated – he’s classy AF, and this G3 may be just what he needs. Watch for a stalking trip, and closing down the stretch. I’ll be playing him at 8/1. I’ll also play 3 Get Jets, not so much for his true odds but because I’ll enjoy yelling “Get Jets!” the whole race. I may even do that J-E-T-S things with my arms. If I win, I’ll get a Chrebet jersey on ebay. NOTE: It’s 20 bucks plus 5 bucks shipping. At 6/1, I’ll need to bet 4 bucks to finance this gem. Is Darrell Revis still in the league? He went to Pitt. I digress…
Although 9 Hunter O’Riley prefers to lumber into the money at the end, he sometimes picks up the pieces of a pace meltdown and ends up in the winners’ circle. Today he’s a likely third.
I like 1 St. Louie, too. He reminds me of Ozzie Smith.
Race 9, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Claiming $25,000
3 w 5
This little jaunt sets up nicely for 3 Mydadfloyd – he’s dropping a tad in class, cutting back a bit, and he’s the only competitive speed. His odds are a little short for my liking, but he’s the best of this bunch. 5 Giant Rocks may creep into second, but clearly has no idea how to win.
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