Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Aqueduct’s in full swing! They’ve got a 9-race card today, with the opener going off at 12:20 PM EDT.
We’re happy to have Mike Collins (@cottycollins21) providing picks & analysis of all the action. He handicapped Saratoga Wednesdays on the site earlier in the year, and he’ll now be sharing his thoughts on Belmont on Saturdays.
Good luck to everyone playing along! Take it away, Mike!
Welcome to another (beautiful) Saturday at Aqueduct! I hope everyone out there had a better BC than I did, as the always-brutal Saturday card got the best of me for the third year in a row. We survived, however, and there’s always another shot to take. Here are my thoughts on today’s Big-A card, as well as the suggested early pick 5. Best of luck to all.
4 – Trance – tried two sprints to start the career, the latter of which was a brutal trip up in Saratoga. Trying grass and two-turns for a barn that excels at both.
8 – Scotty Brown – Speedster has three tries under his belt and has come up just short in all three. Will be firing from the bell and might take them all the way around.
2 – Wacky Pal – nice set of drills leading into the debut, and gets the services of Jose Ortiz.
5 – There Goes Jose – the chalks on the rail and the outside appear to be the ones to beat, but I like the look of this one at 5-1 after impressively breaking the maiden last out at Belmont. He had been trying two turns and the grass as of late until Diodoro went back to dirt sprints. Can he beat winners? Wire to wire?
1 – Southeast – the last two efforts have been very solid, with a bullet work 11/4 heading into this one. Might need a little pace to run into, but does appear live for the task.
6 – Felix in Fabula – tough one to figure out with a few duds on the PP’s. Talent is there, speed is there, but he might not love 6F and a fast track is preferred. Using defensively in the third spot.
3 – Family Biz – three good starts so far and tries 7F for the first time today. The 9/30 bullet led to a nice second 12 days later despite the wide trip. The added distance could be a plus.
5 – Till Then – honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he wins going away coming off the debut and the very nice work-tab. Thomas hits on 36% of second-time maidens as well. The price gives me pause compared to what could be available on the 3, so I’ll take a shot and leave this one in the place spot.
1 – Mine The Coin – good works and Franco aboard for the debut trip. Draws rail and will need to scoot out of there to have a chance.
Race 4 – Likely skipping with all the scratches, but will play #5 at a price of 4-1 or higher.
5 – Pocket Player – doesn’t always fire (hence the 10-1 ML), but picks up Saez and has two solid local starts last fall.
5 – Erlich – didn’t like Keenland last out, and wanted more distance at Monmouth in the debut. Here’s to a one-turn mile and Irad hopping on for Kelly Breen.
2 – Skyline Surprise – first-timer for Todd with nice drills coming into the debut.
1 – Motagaly – Chad with a second-timer and keeps Castellano. Coming off the right break and stretches out.
6 – Honorable Hero – moves back in distance and should get plenty of pace to close into.
7 – Absentee – ships in from Parx coming off two good performances, the most recent of which was a place finish vs. a potential monster.
1 – Backtohisroots – tried the G1 two back, and nobody is confusing this one for a derby horse. That said, the works are electric and he gets Saez back.
9 – Four Freedoms – absolutely loves the distance and should pop from the gate. Looking for a nice price and a potential wire to wire job.
2 – Strong Side – should sit right off the 9 and be able to pounce on the turn. 4 for 5 ITM locally as well.
3 – American Power – another stalking type, 2 for 2 at the distance and gets the Irad / Rice combo (43% at Aqueduct!).
Race 8 – Skipping with all the scratches.
2 – The Chamo – 4 for 4 ITM locally and always seems to run a bit. I like him from the inside today to get his first win over winners.
5 – Takeoff – the likely favorite makes his Aqueduct debut. Last effort down south was solid and picks up Irad for today’s try.
3 – Can’tweallgetalong – tossing the last with the wide trip; the works have been good and I think he’;; give a good account of himself in the finale.
.50 Early Pick 5: 2,4,8 / 1,5,6 / 1,3,5 / 5,13 / 1,2,5 = $81
2018-2019 Belmont / Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 10/20)
- Week 1 (10/20) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Total: 21: 7-5-2, 23.5% ROI ($42 wagered, $51.90 returned)
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