Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 2, 2017
The biggest day of the Aqueduct fall meet is here: Cigar Mile day!! This year’s running drew a competitive field of ten, and goes as the last of a dectet of races on a stacked Saturday program. First post time is 11:30 AM EST.
We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) with picks & analysis of the program. Good luck to everyone playing along!
Race 1, 1 1/8 Mile (Turf), Optional Claiming $62,500
1 w 3/5
Watch for 7 Hit It Once More to break out front and set blistering fractions. As they come onto the backstretch, look for a duel between 3 War Bond and 5 Black Sea. This scenario would set up nicely for 1 Soluble, if he’s able to sit comfortably back throughout the affair and come on when he needs to.
Race 2, 6 1/2 Miles, Claiming $16,000
4 w 10 w 2,3,6,7
There’s a lot of longshots on the morning line. I’ll try to take advantage of a potentially pretty big trifecta payout by putting the four 30/1 shots to show. Ahead of them looks chalky, with 4 Leah’s Dream and 10 Anna Rae on top.
Race 3, 1 Mile (Turf), Claiming $25,000
1A, 5 to win
2B to win (MTO)
1A Any Questions is the classiest of a field in which a lot of runners are stepping up. He seems to like this distance, and should be live at the wire. 5 Buddy’s Tiz has enjoyed recent success at the distance, and today makes a significant step up in class (from $12,500).
If this switches to the main track, I’ll bet a lot on 2B Two Down One to Go.
Race 4, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Maiden $55,000
4 to win
1 Iridescent Morn paints a pretty picture for you with her recent works, but I’m not playing her anywhere near the 7/2 morning line. I’m hoping the first-time starter 4 Forty Winds will take to the turf like a fish takes to water, and pay out nicely at 5/1.
Race 5, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Allowance $57,000
1 w 2 w 4
I really like 1 Follow the Signs in this one. He’s coming off a long layoff after an 11-length win. I’ll admit I’m not overly impressed by his 11-length win, as it probably says more about the other runners in the race while today’s field is much more competitive. It did show that he like the grass, and can set and sustain a pretty aggressive pace. Here, he draws the post and could wire the field.
It’s tough to tell if 2 Vintage Matters belongs at this distance, and he’s another one coming off a long layoff. I don’t think he can pass Follow the Signs, but he’s inclined to placing and should be a strong play underneath. 4 River Knight should set the pace, but most likely lose his lead along the final furlong. He’ll land in the money; I’m guessing to show.
Race 6, 1 Mile, Go For Wind Handicap (Grade 3)
5 to win
5 w 1
I think I’ve managed to lose all my kids’ college funds on Verve’s progeny. Good thing I don’t have any kids. Despite this habitual outflow of dough, I’m tempted to play 5 Verve’s Tale both as a single and a key. She should benefit from the half-a-furlong cutback with a little encouragement from Johnny V.
1 Jamyson ‘n Ginger is a strong contender. She hasn’t won a graded stakes in two tries, but that very well could change today. She should be hot on the heels of the pacesetter coming down the stretch, and not slowing down. I don’t like the 9/5 morning line enough for a win bet, but you can’t leave her out of your horizontals.
Race 7, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Maiden $55,000
4 to win
Based on her first performance, I don’t think 1 Dark Tricks is a race horse. She’s like one of those hunting dogs you take out and all they do is eat grass. I’m kinda keen on 4 Rachel’s Blue Moon if she stays close to the 12/1 morning line – she should like the grass and works have been improving.
Race 8, 1 1/8 Mile, Demoisel (Grade 2)
1 w 4
This is an incredibly competitive field of two-year-old fillies. I’ve found that fillies are a fickle lot and prone to dramatic upticks and downticks, seemingly out of nowhere. Barring a bounce, 1 Daisy should win handily. She just likes to run, and I suggest you sit back and enjoy watching her. Maybe cash some tickets after the match. I’ll play 4 Held Accountable underneath. I was drawn in by 5 Indy Union, but I think she’ll fall into the trap of trying to keep up with Daisy. She’ll be drifting out of the money down the stretch.
Race 9, 1 1/8 Miles, Remsen (Grade 2)
4, 5 exacta box
Does 5 Catholic Boy like the dirt? The correct answer to that question can you earn you a 5/1 payoff, or save you a loss. My second contestant in 4 Biblical. (I’m not doing this on purpose). So long as they don’t pause to proselytize down the backstretch, look for these holy rollers to roll 1-2 in either order.
Race 10, Cigar Mile
6 w 7,9 w 3
Here we go! This one’s the premier race of the Aqueduct meet, and the final NYRA Grade 1 of the year.
Unless 2 Seymourdini assumes the role of a rabbit, 6 Sharp Azteca could be looking at the first Grade 1 win of his career. He’s a burner who will most likely burst out front of the pack, which he should be able to today and cruises across the big long straightaway before the single turn. In his previous efforts, he was run down at the wire. He should be able to establish enough of a lead this afternoon to prevent the same from happening.
I don’t know why 1 Mind Your Biscuits is running this distance, and not a lot of people are going to agree with me but I’m throwing out 8 Practical Joke. I just don’t like him going a mile in a Grade 1.
I really like 3 Just Call Kenny to show (probably for no reason other than his 30/1 morning line). I’ll put 7 Vulcan’s Forge and 9 Summer Revolution in second. The latter hasn’t gone a mile before, but he’s coming in second of a layoff and looked good at 6 Furlongs (although against inferior competitors). I’m thinking that jaunt was just to put some speed into him, and I’m hoping it works. Finally, 7 Vulcan’s Forge might also sneak into the place position.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.