Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Welcome to another Saturday at the Big A! We have a solid nine-race card to dive into this afternoon, so let’s get into it and bring home some winners. It looks like the rain is coming once again, so please keep that in mind looking at these selections. Good luck to all!
11 – Crater Rim – draws outside here and will likely let them get away early and hope for a duel up front. Only her third try on dirt, but picks up the bug rider having a very nice meet and also drops in class a bit (albeit like many others in here). Should be a nice price, looking for that closing kick to finally get her home.
10 – Youmakemeblush – pretty consistent runner for John Servis, drops down to $25k ranks for the first time today. There should be some early speed in here and I expect her to sit just off the pace and pounce on the turn. We’ll see if she can rate or if the potential duel lures her in.
7 – Dynamite Kitten – will pop from the gate and show early speed. More than capable here if you toss the last, but at this price and the possible quick pace I’ll keep her in the third slot after fading late.
3 – Daddy D T – 30th career start for this grinder and he comes in sporting two local wins and a 4:1-1-1 mark over wet ground. Should get the inside position early and try to carry that speed right around. Rice and Alvarado a very potent combo at the Big A as well.
6 – Indian Guide – stalk and pounce type really had no excuse in the last but drops back into what appears to be his level today. Ran well in the slop two back at Belmont, and the work tab looks solid enough to expect a better effort today.
8 – Its All Relevant – speedy ML favorite draws outside and will have the 7 to deal with early. Assuming he clears and takes the race to the 3, it could be a two horse race in the stretch. I do think he’ll have to work early, however, and seems like a good one to try and keep out of the exacta at a short price.
5 – Forgotten Hero – very sharp in the debut win and sports a few bullets in the interim. Will be tested today against winners, but the price should be right and I’ll take a shot that she finds another level in start number 2.
4 – Sassy Agnes – going for four straight today, the most recent of which was a $100k stakes right here at the Big A. The likely winner at odds-on, just hoping she runs into a freak in the 5
3 – She’s So Shea D – Jason Servis at 12-1 in a sprint doesn’t look right on paper. Toss the last as she acted up in the gate, and all you have is the debut win back in October which happened to be over a wet surface. Must include in the horizontals at minimum, and if the price ticks up high enough should be a small win wager as well.
6 – Oh K Funnybone – Saratoga debut was a tough ask, then ran into two clearly better horses in the first start locally. He was much the best of the rest in there, however, and there is reasonable expectation of an improvement here today.
2 – Inflection – draws inside and sports a few nice works leading into the debut for a barn that hits at about 11% with first-timers. Hope he can pop the gate and find his stride early.
9 – Giant Sandy – broker terribly in the debut and never had a chance, so let’s just toss that and hope today brings better racing luck. The works have been good, feels like a mulligan today.
***considering I like a few big prices, I’ll recommend using #4 in the tri and super to protect against tossed favorite beating us.
5 – Anne Dupree – disappointing in the last two as she never really had a chance, but takes a notable class drop today being put in for the $40k tag. She can run on the lead and that could get it done against these, but her best shot might be to sit off that inside speed and make one run.
3 – New Year’s Wish – won at first asking and has been battling at higher levels since. Enters claiming company today coming off an attempted wire to wire job in the last at Laurel. Alvarado rides for Rice and this one must be respected.
6 – Votre Coeur – has a nice stalk and pounce style and is 3 for 3 ITM over a wet track. Last two works have been solid, keeping her off the win end strictly because the recent slump at this level.
2 – American Mandate – has two absolute speedsters immediately inside and outside, so if he lets them clear he has two rabbits to chase. Three solid efforts for Asmussen in Kentucky and has three works under his belt in New York. I like his chances today considering the trip possibilities.
3 – Mine the Coin – $300k purchase tried to wire them from the rail spot in the debut before being caught late. Gets lasix for the first time for George Weaver and has three nice works since the initial try. Will likely improve here but can he control the speed?
9 – Pickle Rick – Brad Cox hits on 21% of his debut runners, and the sire connects on 19%. The works have been ultra-sharp and the price should be right. Toss at your own risk.
9 – Morning Breez – should be able to clear from the outside with that early pop, and would be comfortable on the lead or just off. Kept on running despite setting blazing fractions in his last, hoping he can reel it in just a tad today and take it to them.
2 – Freud’s Affair – very nice allowance win over this track in the last start, and Rudy hits on 22% coming off a win. Works are encouraging and he’s 2 for 3 ITM over the wet track. Will likely show early speed so let’s hope he and our top selection don’t lock horns too early. This exacta could be juicy.
10 – Benevolance – stalk and pounce type who likes the slop and gets a pace to run into? Could easily romp here in the right situation, but I’ll take the bigger prices in front to control the pace and not hand it to him.
3 – Arthur’s Hope – This one is an astonishing 11 for 12 ITM over wet ground with nine wins! The recent form hasn’t been good, but the lone win came over.. you guessed it… a muddy track. Shipped in from Panama early this year so obviously the competition is stiffer for him now, but I can’t ignore those wet-track stats. Must-use at a big price.
**giving four horses here in a deep field, really like this super. Tossing #6 based on the dreadful wet-track record.
5 – Honor Up – 3 for 3 ITM at the Big A with two wins over a wet track. This one graduated from the maiden ranks seven races ago and has beat winners twice since. Works have been sharp coming into this with the only question being the cutback to 6 ½ furlongs. The ability to rate and stay close will be the difference here and I think he gets it done.
3 – Royal Asset – has tremendous early speed and should find his spot early here. The 2 inside of him could cause problems up front, but if he clears and settles on a modest pace he’ll be hard to pass late.
7 – Have Another – I have to admit when I saw the name I was fondly reminded of the spring of 2012 when one of my all time favorites got it done on multiple occasions. The horse without “I’ll” in his name loves Aqueduct and has ran well on the slop. Usually stalks and comes rolling in the lane and I see no reason why that wouldn’t happen here. Using all three of these in the horizontals.
1 – Tiz a Chance – won at the $25k claiming ranks last out, and gets dropped down another level here today. Draws inside and should get a ground-saving trip.
8 – Avast Matey – 1st off the claim for Ryerson (25%) and hasn’t run since May. The works have been very solid, and he will try to clear the three to his outside and get a nice stalking position.
11 – Dancetrack – the Fingerlakes shipper looked great in his last two, both of which came in the mud.
2018-2019 Belmont / Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 12/8)
- Week 1 (10/20) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Total: 64: 17-13-9, -12% ROI ($128 wagered, $112.60 returned)