Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, April 14, 2018
It’s going to be a beautiful day for racing on Saturday at Aqueduct, and they’ve got a nine-race card, with two stakes races. The first post is scheduled for 1:20 PM EDT.
We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) with picks & analysis of the program. Mike’s been writing about New York racing for a while now, and we’re happy to have him back for the Aqueduct meet. Give him a follow on twitter if you can.
Good luck, and take it away, Mike!
Race 1, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Maiden Claiming $40,000
5 w 4 w 1
4 Hokulea ran respectably in previous sprints, but obviously didn’t win any races. Today could be his day. 5 Buss the Bell hit the board last out, and is on the uptick. At 12/1 in a mediocre field, he looks like the smartest play. 1 Well in Tune may not want to be a race horse, but I’ll throw him underneath to try and beef up the trifecta.
Race 2, 1 Mile (Turf), Allowance $75,000
7, 4 exacta box
4 Tizzelle is the horse to beat in this one, and the morning line odds makers already figured that out. At 6/5 you’re not gonna make much dough, but the only ones who can take her down are the overseas shippers. Between 6 House of Dixie and 7 Icespire, I’ll take the latter because she’s run well against some classy contestants. If this switches to dirt, I’ll play 1 Andesine.
Race 3, 1 Mile (Outer Turf), Plenty of Grace Stakes $100,000
4 to win
The first stakes race on the card features a rather slim field without a heavy favorite or too many slackers. I like 1 Fifty Five on the rail – I think she’ll be able to settle in for a comfortable jaunt before she’s ready to take over. The only one who may foil her plan is 4 Stallion Heiress – the lone speed horse in the route. At 10/1, I’ll take speed.
Race 4, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Allowance $66,000
1, 6 to win
I like 1 Gorelli because he’s taking such a big jump in class. The other runners have competed at this level with lukewarm results. Gorelli has taken a couple of weeks off after an impressive win in the claiming ranks. If he can keep up that momentum, he’ll find himself in the winners circle this afternoon. If not Gorelli, keep an eye on 6 H Man – he’s narrowly lost his last two outs, but looks tuned up for a strong display today.
Race 5, 1 1/16 Mile (Outer Turf), Allowance $75,000
2 w ALL w 4
There’s a lot of speed here, which benefits 2 Kulin Rock and the heavy longshot 4 Accountable. I’ll put the former in third, play Kullin Rock to win and throw the rest of the field in an ALL play. I think this could be the best-paying exotic on the card.
Race 6, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Maiden $70,000
1, 2 to win
This one’s interesting. There’s a handful of first timers going long on the grass. Each of these three are wildcards, while none of the runners who have hit the turf before give any indication they’re inclined to win this afternoon. Any wager here is a straight gamble. I’ll go with 1 Confirmation Bias and 2 Kingdom’s Queen. Neither is offering a hefty payout, but both are well bred and their works suggest they may have a chance. I won’t put too much into, though.
Race 7, 1 Mile, Allowance $75,000
7 to win
1 Mr. Buff is the odds-on favorite here, and rightfully so. He’s a gamer who always competes, and has been doing well since his layoff over the holidays. He most likely will hit the wire first, but the 1/1 morning line is doing nothing for me. 7 Sir Ballantine ran lights out last out after relocating barns. He’s had a few weeks to rest, and at 10/1 I’m hoping he’s in peak form. He’s stepping up in class and should be in the mix down the backstretch.
Race 8, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Bridgetown Stakes $100,000
3 w 2 w 5,6
The marquee race on the card features eight able-bodied three-year-olds clopping their way across a six grassy furlongs. The stars align for 3 All Systems Go – he ran well at a shorter distance in his only out, and showed no signs of slowing down before the wire. This race looks like a mere chink in his armor as he works his way up to higher-valued stakes races. He’s not looking to pay out too heavily, and even throwing 2 Barbarossa underneath in the exacta will yield a moderately-priced exacta. I’ll throw 5 Black Stetson and 6 Colandmississippi in third for value.
Race 9, 1 1/16 (Turf), Maiden $70,000
6 w 3
I like 6 Amazing Audrey here – she ran well at a slightly longer distance last out, and may benefit if she’s pushed a little earlier over less ground. 3 Reversethedecision is also a contender, but I’m not sure why she’s taken so much time off over the past few months.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.