Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, February 4, 2016
On Thursday, we’re headed back out to Santa Anita, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from our friend and returning handicapper Sean Alvarez (@smoothturn2).
We thank Sean for sharing his thoughts today. We encourage you to follow him on Twitter and wish you good luck if you’re playing along. Take it away, Sean…
Thank you for tuning in for another competitive card from “The Great Race Place” Santa Anita. Let’s cash some tickets and build that bankroll.
Late Pick 4
Race 1- 3-5
In the first race of the card I do not see anyone in the field that can challenge the two top choices. Every horse in the race is coming off some kind of layoff with the exception of #3 Mighty Mousse who is running his second start after over a year long layoff. He had a length lead through the turn and the layoff kicked in and was unable to put away the eventual winner. Mighty Mousse, however, finished 9 lengths in front of the third place finisher and I think he will have more in the tank this next time out. #5 Mr. Pucci hasn’t seen the starting gate in over 6 months but certainly, his only two starts make him a logical contender. I see this as a two horse race in the stretch with Mighty Mousse putting away Mr. Pucci with that recent experience being the edge.
Race 2- 4-6-8 (2)
#4 Mr. Game Seven has been extremely consistent while trying to break through for the first time. The connections have tried everything from sprints to routes to turf and dirt and now finds a realistic spot here going back to the surface and distance where his best race was run. #6 And Then Some is a standout on speed figures and will most likely go off as the favorite in the 2nd. Look for this gelding to be forwardly placed and might be the first to turn for home with a race lacking a big speed presence. My concern with this horse is that his best race came off of a “good” track last time out and they drop a few classes after that effort. #8 Kiwi Attitude hasn’t seen the board in his first two tries but both were sprinting and he found himself too far back turning for home with too much to do. I’d look for this colt to sit a little closer with a softer pace up front and could come home at a price. #2 Norman Jorgenson jogged around the track in his only previous start with little interest. He has received the ultimate equipment change and could be a nice price to play underneath in your exotics.
Race 3- 4-7-8
#4 Fishel comes back to run his second start off the layoff in which he broke extremely slow, rushed up and faded. Flavien Prat sticks with this horse and has the running lines to suggest that he can pull off a minor upset. #7 John’s Success towers over this bunch on the speed figures but I am concerned that Bejarano might tie up with the front runners and set this race up for Fishel. If Bejarano can sit a length or two off the speed and relax, I think he wins by 3-4 lengths. #8 Saxon Lord has one shot at winning and that is to gun to the front and never look back. With nothing but cheap speed in the race and the rails out 30 feet, I think there is a small shot.
Race 4- 5-4-2
#5 Templar looks to be the speed of the race and he gets the addition of blinkers for today’s race. Maldonado is one of the best jockeys at getting his horse out of the gate. Look for Edwin to send for the first turn and try to lull the other horses to sleep as he controls the tempo. #4 It Behooves Me gets his second start over this main track at Santa Anita after being shipped down from Golden Gate. He was competitive at a higher level up north so if he can take to the track on this second start, he could be dangerous. #2 Book Thirty Four broke his maiden at this track and distance so we know he can put it together. He also continues to drop down the class ladder but his last 5 starts after his maiden score weren’t even close. Tough to swallow the low odds on this gelding.
Race 5- 7-6-5
Tough race to get through to cash the Pick 5 or start the Pick 4. I would suggest going as deep as you can afford to in this race as I can see numerous horses with a chance. I eventually landed on the #7 Thunder Basin as my top choice. There are a few horses that I think will try and control the pace but Martin Pedroza has the option to sit right behind those horses. My only concern is one of those horses getting a clear lead as none of these are that reliable. #6 Lucky Shoes to Win is the fastest of the speed type horses and ran away to win by over a length last time out albeit at the maiden claiming ranks but this race isn’t too far from that. Martin Pedroza does jump off to land on my top choice but Santiago Gonzalez is having a strong meet and can pick up the mount with confidence. #5 Heavenly Haze broke his maiden impressively at Los Alamitos but that was 6 months ago and he hasn’t had his picture taken since then. Tough to swallow at 2-1 ML but I will be including on my horizontal wagers.
Race 6- 7-1-4
Another tough race in my opinion this time going 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill on the turf course. I landed on #7 Incline Village as my top pick a horse for the course. Out of 10 starts going down the hill he is 3-3-1. This guy enjoys the course and will always give you an honest effort. #1 Dead Easy gets a good post position since he doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed. Kent should sit a nice trip behind a group of horses that I project to be running at a quick pace. He will make one run going into the turn and if he doesn’t get floated too wide, he could jump up and snag the leaders for the win. #4 Daddy D T has run into more tough horses for a 4 year old than I can remember. Om, Hootenanny, Bolo, Papacoolpapacool, Calculator, Texas Red, and that horse we all know as American Pharoah. His running lines look competitive on the form but he has never been down the hill which is a negative in my opinion. I will stick with this horse again here and hope to catch more than 5-1.
Race 7- 8-5-3
#8 Danzing Candy ran a toss away race in his first start then a blowout in his second going 7 furlongs and beating a talented horse (Mr. Coker) by 3 lengths. Mike Smith had the horse going quick fractions and had plenty in the tank to increase the lead in the stretch. He has had plenty of time to rest and I think we are in store for another big win here. #5 Shred the Rules set the pace in his maiden victory and then stalked the pace in his next out win. If Tyler Baze can sit a length or two behind the leader(s) and they go too fast, he should get first crack at a big price. #3 French Getaway is going to need the leaders to run their eyeballs out and have nothing in the tank on the stretch. French Getaway ran down a good horse in Hoffenheim last time out but needed 22-46-1.11 to do that. I don’t think he was closing as hard as they were coming back but there is speed signed up and Kent can get a horse to relax and make a big run, a la Texas Red.
Race 8- 10-5-1-8
Another well written end to a weekday card at Santa Anita here. I landed on #10 Profound Visionary as my top pick. He will make his second start at Santa Anita and Tyler Baze jumps off the ML favorite to take this call. After a year long layoff he ran a respectable second to Edzactly and beat a next out winner Upbeat Tempo handily. I expect an improvement off of that race and should track the early pace closely. #5 Adair tracked a relatively quick pace first time out and came home gamely. Next time out he bobbled at the start and lost all chance. A jock change to Edwin which is a plus and this horse has a chance to cash our Pick 4. #1 Anda is quick and David Lopez has one chance, to go from the gate. Get out and play catch me if you can. #8 Uptown Rhythm drops is class and has good, competitive running lines but that comes with a big asterisk. Purchased for 220k, tons of layoffs and the jockey leaves for a smaller barn. I’ll put him on my ticket but will be rooting against the horse for a bigger price.
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